Geopolitical uncertainty remains a major market driver. Admittedly, reactions have been somewhat less muted to the good news lately. We will monitor those reactions. Meanwhile, the trumpets speak and say
- You will work on the Taiwan problem
- I will speak to the President of Taiwan.
- I think it is good that Xi meets with Putin.
- Regarding Iran, he says we will give this a chance, and I am in no hurry.
- We will be looking to get rid of the people in the Department of Justice and the FBI (I’m not sure what that means, honestly).
- He says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will do what he wants him to do about Iran. He says Iran is destroyed.
Crude oil remains one of the main factors driving the market, and is also important in the eyes of the consumer. Currently, crude oil is trading lower, down $2.40 or -2.30% at $101.78, as sellers push the market closer to an important technical support area.
On the hourly chart, today’s low reached $100.75, just above the bullish 200 hour moving average of $100.55 (green line on the chart below). This moving average has proven to be a key measure of short-term bias. Recall that during Monday’s trading, buyers also relied on the 200 hourly moving average, which helped the price bounce back after testing support near the swing zone between $97.34 and $98.58.
As long as the price can stabilize above the 200 hourly moving average, buyers still retain some technical control in the near term. However, a sustained break below this level would shift the bias more towards the downside from a technical perspective. If sellers gain this momentum, traders will then look towards the swing zone support between $97.34 and $98.58, along with the 50% midpoint of the wider trading range since April at $98.30, as the next major downside targets.
