According to a recent on-chain study, the Bitcoin market has entered another critical phase, driven by the growing divergence between hash and whale activity.
Pisces’ positions diverge sharply from optimism in the retail sector
in Share X On May 16, cryptocurrency analyst Joao Widson highlighted a clear dichotomy between Bitcoin retail trading activity and that of whales. This post’s confirmation is based on readings obtained from the Bitcoin meter: Whale Vs Retail Delta. For context, the metric monitors the difference in trading behavior between large Bitcoin holders (whales) and retail traders. Thus, it helps determine whether the smart money is becoming more bullish or bearish, compared to the bias of smaller participants in the Bitcoin market.
The Whale to Retail Delta price reached its lowest level since January 2024, at the launch of the ETF, when a strong short squeeze from whales emerged during a phase of excessive market optimism.
Now we are seeing a similar behavior pattern.
A large number of people… pic.twitter.com/ESSjxPd1ND
– Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 16, 2026
According to Wedson, Bitcoin: Whale Vs Retail Delta has now fallen to its lowest level since January 2024 – the same period in which Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the US. It is worth noting that this period also witnessed a significant infusion of selling pressure from major Bitcoin holders. The market analyst indicates that the same behavioral pattern that appeared in 2024 may appear again. According to market volume, Bitcoin whales have begun to reduce their risk exposure as retail continues to buy more Bitcoin, likely under the belief that the price has been set at $60,000.
Interestingly, whale activity has served as an early warning sign during periods of excessive market euphoria. Larger holders typically manage their risks more aggressively, especially after strong rallies. However, Widson points out that this divergence does not necessarily indicate an imminent price correction. Rather, it simply indicates the clearly growing uncertainty within the Bitcoin market. If other conditions – such as institutional demand and ETF flows – should keep pace with this already uncertain market, the world’s leading cryptocurrency could face downward pressure in the near to medium term.
Bitcoin market overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is $78,188. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the leading cryptocurrency has fallen by 1.01% since last day. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently down more than 3% of its value. ETF tracking site SoSoValue also reported that as of May 15, U.S. BTC Spot ETFs recorded a staggering weekly net inflow of $1 billion. The figure marked the first negative weekly net flow in the second quarter, breaking a six-week upward streak. At press time, the total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs are $104.29 billion, representing 6.58% of market capitalization.
