All news is verified and thoroughly reviewed by leading blockchain experts and seasoned industry insiders.
XRP exchange flows and chart tell two versions of the same story. On-chain data shows that coins are exiting trading venues at the fastest clip since February, while the daily chart shows a market that has stopped declining but has yet to achieve a reversal.
The token is trading at $1.10 at the time of writing, down 0.40% on the day, and is sandwiched between the session low near $1.01 and a lower 50-day moving average that has already rejected a single recovery attempt this month.
TL;DR
- The net number of XRP deposit and withdrawal transactions over a seven-day period at Coinbase fell to approximately -13,000 on July 15, with Binance reaching approximately -5,600.
- The Coinbase reading is about 700 transactions, or 5.7%, deeper than the -12,300 recorded on February 14.
- Binance’s XRP reserves are held at approximately 2.61 billion tokens, the lowest level since February, while the price is trading near $1.10.
- Bybit’s seven-day influx swung roughly 27,220 transactions in 38 days, from +27,000 on June 7 to -220 on July 15.
Coinbase Withdrawal Gap Widens After Extreme February
Cryptoquant Written by analyst Amr Taha Coinbase’s seven-day net deposit/withdrawal transaction count fell to nearly -13,000 on July 15, surpassing the -12,300 reading from February 14. This makes the current withdrawal dominance about 5.7% more negative than the previous five-month maximum, the largest gap between outgoing and incoming transactions on the exchange since that period.
Binance shows the same trend on a smaller scale. Its gauge fell to roughly -5,600 transactions, near levels last seen on February 11, leaving Coinbase’s negative reading about 2.3 times larger than Binance’s reading. However, the sharpest structural shift came from Paybit, where the seven-day transaction count collapsed from around +27K transactions on June 7 to -220 on July 15. Taha noted that PayBit’s near-neutral reading suggests that “the previous dominance of deposit transactions has largely disappeared” rather than being replaced by heavy outflows.
With Coinbase, Binance, and Bybit simultaneously in negative territory, the data points to a multi-exchange rotation towards XRP activity dominating the drawdown. One caveat comes from the analyst himself: The metric counts transactions, not the amount of XRP or its dollar value, so it captures change in user behavior rather than confirming how much money is actually moving.
Binance reserves are at their lowest level since February
Transaction data corresponds to what happens to the display exchange. Contributor to CryptoQuant I mentioned the Arabic series Binance’s XRP reserves fell to approximately 2.61 billion XRP at the beginning of July, their lowest level since February, and have stabilized near that mark with no significant replenishment inflows.
The decline in supply did not raise prices. XRP fell to around $1.01 during the same period, and the Arabian chain warned that “a decline in exchange reserves does not necessarily translate into an immediate increase in prices,” citing liquidity, trading volume and sentiment as competing forces. This is the counterargument to a straightforward bullish reading: shrinking exchange balances and withdrawal-dominant flows describe reduced sell-side supply, not inbound demand, and five months of declining Binance reserves coincided with a price decline, not a rise.
Base inside the downtrend
Daily chart Tires Why shifting on the chain no longer matters for the price. XRP remains in a downtrend from the March-April highs near $1.60, with the steepest leg breaking down from the $1.40 area in late May to the cycle low near $1.01 on June 25. The price, which was then based on the $1.04-1.05 level, then rose to around $1.185 in early July, where the move specifically failed at the then-higher bearish 50-day SMA, and pulled back to the July 13 low near $1.05. This second bottom is 3-4% above the June low, and marks the first higher low since April rather than a double bottom, as the two bottoms are not at identical levels.
The decline in early July also identifies the risk of bull trapping in this setting. This bounce pulled buyers back above $1.15 before failing at the 50-day SMA and reversing the entire move. The current recovery towards $1.10 may repeat the sequence: Rally ends 50-day intraday, stalls below the $1.18-1.19 high. A pullback may lock up late buy trades a second time and return momentum to the downside.
All three major moving averages are above the price and continue to fall: the 50-day moving average at $1.14, the 100-day moving average at $1.27, and the 200-day moving average at $1.44. The entire bearish stack maintains the structural trend down until the 50-day period is restored. Momentum provides the first constructive details: RSI(14) at 48.6 remains above its signal line, and the late June low near $1.01 marked an RSI low above the oversold reading in early June, a moderate bullish divergence that preceded the current stabilization. The contraction in trading volume, by 13.2 million on the day versus June highs of over 30 million, confirms consolidation rather than trend.
The upper and lower structure remains uncertain until the July high at $1.18-1.19 area is broken. A daily close above the 50-day SMA near $1.14, followed by a close across $1,185, could represent the first structural breakout to the downside since April and could open the way towards $1.27, where the 100-day SMA awaits. A daily close below the July low at $1.05 could erase the higher low and re-expose $1.01, and a breakout there could send XRP below $1 for the first time this cycle.
Over the coming weeks, it will be clear whether Binance reserves will continue to decline while the price remains in a range. A continuation of the decline coupled with a close at $1,185 may confirm the validity of the supply pressure hypothesis; A rally that fails within the $1.14-1.185 range before breaking below $1.05 would signal the recovery as a bullish trap and confirm the Arabian Series’ warning that weak exchange supply alone cannot carry the price.
