Key takeaways
- Risk sentiment in financial markets remained fragile following conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials.
- XRP risks falling below $1.0 if the downtrend continues.
Ripple’s XRP remained under pressure on Wednesday, trading below $1.10 and maintaining a broader bearish outlook.
The remittance-focused cryptocurrency failed to extend an early week recovery attempt as investors reacted to renewed geopolitical uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran.
The disparity between the United States and Iran indicates uncertainty in the fuel market
Risk sentiment in financial markets remained fragile following conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials following the first round of peace negotiations held in Switzerland.
US Vice President J.D. Vance said on Monday evening that Iran has agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to return to the country. However, Iranian authorities disputed this claim, insisting that Tehran did not make any additional commitments during the discussions.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the United States has agreed to release nearly $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump warned reporters that Washington would take further action if Iran failed to adhere to the terms of any deal.
Mixed messages have contributed to risk-off sentiment across cryptocurrency markets, limiting demand for digital assets and reinforcing downward pressure on XRP.
Investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains weak despite a slight improvement in confidence levels.
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index registered a reading of 23 on Monday, remaining firmly in the “extreme fear” zone. While the index improved marginally from the 20 recorded the previous day, market participants continue to adopt a cautious stance amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
The weak sentiment suggests that traders are still reluctant to aggressively accumulate risk assets, increasing the possibility that short-term rallies will face selling pressure.
XRP Price Forecast: Bears continue to control the trend
Technically, XRP continues to show a bearish structure on the daily time frame.
The token is trading well below the major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), including the 50-day EMA at $1.25, the 100-day EMA at $1.35, and the 200-day EMA at $1.56.
XRP also remains below the middle Bollinger band near $1.15, reinforcing the current bearish bias.
Momentum indicators support more cautious expectations. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 38, indicating weak downside momentum without oversold conditions being reached yet.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive around the zero line, indicating temporary stability rather than a decisive trend reversal.
For XRP to regain upward momentum, buyers must overcome several important resistance areas.
The first hurdle lies at the midpoint of the Bollinger Band near $1.15, followed by resistance at the upper border of the Bollinger Band around $1.22.
Furthermore, the 50-day EMA at $1.25 and the descending trend line near $1.28 are creating an important supply area. Additional resistance levels are at the 100 day moving average near $1.35 and the 200 day moving average near $1.56.
A successful breakout above these barriers will be required to shift the broader market structure towards bullish expectations.
On the downside, immediate support for XRP is near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.07.
A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling pressure and expose the symbol to retest the recent support area around $1.05.
If the bearish momentum intensifies further, traders may look to the psychologically important $1.00 level as the next major demand area.
Until buyers reclaim key resistance levels, XRP remains vulnerable to additional downside risks in the near term.
