Gold remains in a broader bullish structure despite the ongoing correction from the 5600 high.
Using a Fibonacci retracement measured from the monthly structural low (origin of the impulsive upward move) to the all-time high near 5600:
* 61.8% correction: ~4165
* 78.6% correction: ~3776
The market is already trading below the 61.8% level, which increases the possibility of a deeper correction towards the 78.6% retracement area.
However, the area between 3776 and 3830 is not just a Fibonacci level. It is also compatible with:
* Previous monthly swing low (~3828)
*Historical demand
*Major liquidity area
This creates a high-confluence support area.
—
### Weekly time frame
The weekly structure remains corrective.
As long as the price remains below 4188, buyers have not fully regained control.
The key question for the coming weeks is whether the current decline is:
1. A natural correction within a long-term uptrend, or
2. The beginning of a deeper bearish phase.
For now, the weekly chart favors continued caution until buyers regain higher levels.
—
### Daily time frame
The daily chart provides the most important information.
Several important levels have emerged:
#### Support area No. 1
3968
The price has already reacted positively from this level several times.
This area served as a stabilization base before continuing higher.
—
#### Support area No. 2
3890-3887
This area represents:
*Previous cumulative base
*The origin of the major bullish expansion
* A historic starting point that eventually led to new heights
This level has not yet been retested since the upward expansion began.
—
#### Support area No. 3
3822-3776
This is the deepest support group and includes:
* Daily order block
* Monthly support
* Fibonacci retracement 78.6%
* Potential liquidity sweep zone
This is currently the strongest support area on the chart.
—
#Trading scenarios
## Scenario A — Bullish breakout trading
condition:
* The four-hour candle closes above 4058
entrance:
* Wait for 4058 retest
*Enter after bullish confirmation on the hourly chart
Entry area:
4060-4070
Stop loss:
Less than 3968
Objectives:
TP1: 4165
TB2:4278
TB3:4382
Revocation:
Four-hour close below 4058 after the breakout.
—
## Scenario B — Buying from the main demand area
condition:
The price reaches 3890-3822
Confirmation required:
* 4H bullish engulfing candle
* Liquidity sweep below support level followed by recovery
* Break of the short-term bearish structure
entrance:
After 4H confirmation
Entry area:
3890-3822
Stop loss:
Less than 3776
Objectives:
TP1: 3968
TB2:4058
TB3:4165
This setup currently offers the best risk-reward profile.
—
## Scenario C – The downward trend continues
condition:
The four-hour candle closes below 3968
entrance:
Wait for 3968 retest from below
to be sure:
Bearish rejection on 1H time frame
Objectives:
3890
3822
3776
Revocation:
Recovery above 3968.
—
# Trading framework
Trend direction:
Daily chart
to be sure:
4 hour chart
to implement:
1 hour chart
The main focus remains on the reaction around 3968. If buyers maintain control above this level, a move towards 4058 and perhaps 4188 becomes increasingly likely.
If the 3968 level fails, the market will likely look for liquidity within the 3776-3890 demand zone, which remains the most important support group on the chart.
