Elon Musk’s SpaceX had the largest initial public offering in history on June 12, 2026, and the debut lived up to the hype: Shares priced at $135, opened at about $150 and closed near $161 on the first day, briefly valuing the company at more than $2 trillion. Less than a month later, the picture looks very different. SPCX price drifted back down towards the $145-$150 area, giving back almost every point of its first day high and remaining well below its June 16 intraday high of ~$225.
That back-and-forth — from a hugely successful launch to arriving with a stock hovering just above its offering price — is the reason behind the “SpaceX stock crash?” It has become one of the most searched questions in the market currently. Below we explain what happens, why, and realistic scenarios from here.
Why is SpaceX stock price falling?
This slide is less an isolated disaster than a classic case of a post-IPO lull hitting a staggering valuation. Some forces are stacked on top of each other:
Early pop music was built on the euphoria of retail. SpaceX reserved an unusually large share of the supply — roughly 30% — for retail investors, exceeding demand several times over. This type of frenzy tends to lead to buying in advance, and once the initial rush wears off, the price will often gravitate back towards where the trade is actually priced. And that’s pretty much what happened here.
Evaluation leaves little room for error. Even after withdrawal, $SPCX It carries a market capitalization of north of $2 trillion for negative trailing earnings. Bulls are longing for Starlink’s cash flow, dominant launch franchise and xAI/Grok AI angle for years into the future. When a stock is priced to perform near flawlessly, even neutral news It could lead to a sale.
Sector sentiment has turned. Its space and satellite peers have been sold sympathetically, and a broader risk-off tone across the high-tech multiple has influenced the newest, most speculative name in the group. Not qualifying for inclusion in the S&P 500 for at least a year also removes a source of forced buying of the index that some traders had been relying on.
What are analysts saying about SPCX?
On paper, Wall Street remains constructive – but the range of views is extreme, which in itself is a warning sign. The consensus is ‘buy’, with 12-month average targets congregating somewhere in the low $200s depending on the data provider. However, individual targets range from around $115 on the low to as much as $800 on the most aggressive calls, with at least one call at the high of the Street implying massive upside.
That spread — a low three-digit landing case versus a three-figure trip to the moon — tells you the honest truth: No one really knows how to value SpaceX yet. When targets differ by a factor of five or more, the “average” price target is close to meaningless, and the stock is likely to remain highly volatile. Notably, at least one prominent value investor has publicly described the listing as one of the most overvalued in history and predicted an eventual collapse, while momentum-focused analysts see the next leg higher towards $250 and beyond.
Will SpaceX shares collapse? Three scenarios
Instead of pretending to know the outcome, it helps to determine the probabilities. None of these are forecasts, but rather the paths the market is currently pricing in between.
- Bear state – real relaxation. If the retail supply continues to fade, the lock-up or anti-flop window expires and allows for more exposure to the market, or a setback occurs in Starship or a total risk-off event occurs, the price of SPCX could fall below its IPO price of $135 and hold. Given the beta and daily volatility the stock has already shown, a quick drawdown of 30-50% from current levels is within the range of what this speculative name can do. This is the scenario around which the “collapse” question revolves.
- Base case — prolonged and intermittent consolidation. The stock spends months digesting its valuation, which ranges roughly between its IPO price and debut highs as the business grows to expectations. Volatile, frustrating, but not a bust — the typical fate of a massive IPO once the dust settles.
- The case of the bull – the story confirms itself. Strong Starlink numbers, Starship’s progress, momentum behind the xAI/Grok integration and eventual index listing are attracting buyers again, and the stock is retesting and clearing previous highs towards the upper end of analyst targets.
The uncomfortable truth: All three are reasonable right now, and the stock could go a long way in either direction before the fundamental picture becomes clearer.
How to trade SpaceX stock price – in either direction?
This is where many investors get stuck. If you think the price of $SPCX is trending down, simple as that possession Stocks aren’t doing you any good — and if you think they’re headed higher, you may need leverage or flexibility to move quickly. This is exactly the situation for which CFDs are designed, because they allow you to take a position in it Both ways: Buy if you support the uptrend, or sell if you think a crash is coming.
with XTB You can trade SpaceX ($SPCX) as a CFD – which means you can open a long position to profit from a bounce, or a short position to profit if the stock declines, all from one account. XTB is an established, regulated broker with a fast, intuitive platform, transparent pricing and no minimum deposit, making it a practical choice whether you’re trading for the next step or hedging against downside.
👉 Open your XTB account here and trade long or short SpaceX
Whatever your view on the crash, the main advantage is optionality: you are not forced to choose to “buy and hope.” You can express a bearish or bullish thesis – and manage your risk with a specific position size – through one structured platform. Start trading $SPCX with XTB.
