Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $65,000 after rising nearly 13% from its late June low near $58,000. However, on-chain analysis suggests that the rebound still represents a comfortable rally rather than a confirmed recovery.
Unrealized losses remain larger than during the February crisis, and spot demand continues to contract. At the same time, the price is lower than almost every major cost-based model tracked on the chain.
On-chain analysis shows deeper losses than the collapse that occurred in February
Vitreous node Data show that unrealized gains collapsed from about $1.4 trillion at the peak in October 2025. By late June, they had fallen to about $400 billion, the lowest reading of the cycle.
The net unrealized profit/loss in June was also lower than it was during the February crash, although prices were similar both times. The gap indicates that currencies were changed during the drawdown, raising the overall market cost basis.
Unrealized losses ranged between $200 billion and $300 billion for most of 2026. In contrast, these losses remained near zero throughout 2025. Such prolonged pain historically resembles a late stage of surrender, surrender. Early bottom signals It has already appeared elsewhere.
July brought some relief. Unrealized gains rebounded to nearly $500 billion as losses narrowed. However, for the signal to turn bullish, earnings would have to expand beyond the spring high near $580 billion.
Futures traders are the only buyers left
The recovery in shareholder profitability comes with a caveat. CryptoQuant data shows that futures demand flipped back to net positive in July, while spot demand continued to contract.
Total demand for 30-day perpetual futures grew by about 30,000 to 50,000 BTC this month. However, the expansion in April approached 250,000 BTC and took the rally to $82,000. The appetite for futures today is about five times smaller.
Instant demand tells an even worse story. The metric has remained negative all year and is now shrinking by around 200,000 BTC per month. Total demand collapsed to nearly negative 550,000 BTC in early June, the worst reading of 2026.
Leveraged bounces without immediate absorption have historically proven to be fragile. A cool US inflation reading helped BTC break above its level Resistance mid-JuneBut the organic buyers aren’t coming back yet.
BTC price prediction is based on a cost basis of $69,500
Bitcoin trades under three of the four main on-chain valuation models. Only the price achieved at $52,900 remains a support below the market.
The price spent such a long period between the realized price and the true market average during the bear market of 2022. Every attempt to recover short-term bondholders’ cost basis (STH) since late 2025 has failed, including the March rebound.
The first real victory for bulls is at $69,500, about 6% above the current price. Restoring it would put new buyers back into profit, a shift that has historically characterized it The beginning of the recovery stages.
| Model on the series | level | Attitude versus price |
|---|---|---|
| Active realized price | $83,500 | 27% above |
| Real market means | $76,200 | 16% above |
| Short-term carrier cost basis | $69,500 | 6% above |
| Realized price | $52,900 | 19% below |
A loss of the realized price of $52,900 would indicate a deep bear market instead. one Projection It already points to a potential Q4 bottom near $44,000.
The Fed’s next interest rate decision could accelerate the move in either direction. A reclaim of $69,500 could open the way to the true market average of $76,200, while a rejection risks another test of $58,000.
this post Why Bitcoin’s recent rebound to $65,000 may not last? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
