Bitcoin fell 3.35% over the past 24 hours to $73,281.93, underperforming the already weak cryptocurrency market as renewed tensions in the Middle East and intense institutional selling pressure continue to weigh on risk assets. The asset also shows a strong correlation of 83.6% with gold, indicating that macroeconomic concerns are significantly impacting the current price movement.
Amid recent market weakness, cryptocurrency analyst Alex Mason He says Bitcoin may still have more to fall before any meaningful recovery begins.
According to Mason, Bitcoin has spent the last two months trading within a rising channel that has created “false strength” through slow rises, trapping retail traders anticipating a breakout toward $100,000.
The analyst pointed to Bitcoin’s recent move towards the CME gap near $82,000, arguing that the level was successfully filled before the market rejected the rapidly rising prices. From his perspective, the rejection confirmed the classic bull trap before another leg down.
A collapse of about $60,000?
Mason says Bitcoin is now starting to break out of the rising channel structure. His short-term forecast includes a move towards $70,000, followed by a deeper correction towards the $60,000 range over the next few months.
“My plan for the next three months is simple,” Mason explained while outlining the bearish scenario.
He also claimed that he correctly identified Bitcoin’s previous low of $16,000 and high of $126,000, adding that his next call to the market “will be more important.”
Cryptographic analyzer Michael van de Poppe He also warned that Bitcoin could revisit the lower $60,000 range if current support levels collapse. He said that Bitcoin’s rejection near the $77,000 resistance zone accelerated the bearish momentum and led to a sharper correction in altcoins.
According to Van de Poppe, the rebalancing at the end of the month by asset managers partly leads to weakness, but the current support area remains crucial for Bitcoin’s next move.
Prediction markets are becoming less bullish
Prediction markets are also showing lower confidence in Bitcoin hitting six figures this year.
According to Kalshi Crypto, traders are now placing only a 32% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before the end of the year. The odds drop further in the short term, with only a 4% chance of Bitcoin reaching that level next month.
The lower odds reflect growing uncertainty in financial markets as traders weigh geopolitical tensions, institutional selling and broader macroeconomic risks against Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook.
While many cryptocurrency investors still expect Bitcoin to return to all-time highs later in the cycle, Mason says the market may first need a much deeper reset before another major rally begins.
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