The latest data on the Bitcoin blockchain and its derivatives indicates a build setup with VanEck Highlight Negative funding rates and pooled retail rate withdrawals combined with softer volatility and cautious positions.
This has been achieved, the company noted in its latest report Volatility It fell from around 56% to 41% as US-Iran tensions eased, while the 7-day average funding rate fell to around -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023 and in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.
Since 2020, Bitcoin’s average 30-day return during periods of negative funding has been 11.5%, compared to 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% success rate for positive performance. When annual funding dropped below -5%, the average thirty-day returns were 19.4%, and the 180-day returns were 70%, which made negative funding a frequent contrarian buy signal. VanEck also reports that 19 of the top 50 180-day return periods since 2020 started on days with negative funding, although these periods represent only about 13.6% of the sample.
Bitcoin hash rate is declining
On the mining side, the 30-day moving average Hash rate It fell to the 16th percentile over 30 days and to the 9th percentile over 90 days, while difficulty fell to the 5th and 6th percentile at those horizons.
Three sustained hash rate declines have appeared since December 2025, the most intense set since the 2021 China mining ban, with the last drawdown ending around 6.7% on April 15, 2026. Across seven completed historical drawdowns, Bitcoin was higher after 90 days in six cases, with an average gain of 37.7% and an average gain of 63.1% over 180 days.
Derivatives and on-chain activity reflect cautious sentiment rather than capitulation. Premiums relative to spot volume are more than six times their level in April 2024, while active supply over the past 180 days has fallen to 28.4%, indicating increased holder dormancy.
Long-tenure groups, particularly landlords aged 7-10 and 10+, have increased their spending volume to the 85th and 90th percentiles over the past four years, but van Eck stresses that such moves do not always represent an outright sell-off.
Taken together, the company concludes that negative funding and hash rate pressure constitute a strengthening bullish backdrop for Bitcoin.
“Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong Bitcoin futures returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on Bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.
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