The Canadian men’s national team has reached the “Sweet 16” of the World Cup – officially the Round of 16. Canada’s 1-0 win over South Africa on June 28, 2026 secured a spot in the knockout stage for the first time in the country’s history. Oh, Canada.
Unfortunately for CAD bulls, football success has not translated into support for the CAD. USD/CAD is trading near the session high of 1.4209 (lower than the CAD), with today’s low coming in at just 1.4176. Sellers need to generate more downside momentum if they hope to regain control from buyers, who have pushed the pair up sharply from the May 1 low of 1.35492 to last week’s double-high of 1.4247, which was reached on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Technically, last week’s double top gave sellers the green light to push the pair lower. They succeeded in pushing the price below the 100 hourly moving average on Friday and have managed to keep the pair mostly below that level since then.
The problem for the bears is that the bullish 200 hour moving average, currently at 1.4169, has yet to face a serious test. In fact, the pair has not traded below the 200 hourly moving average since May 29. There is a need to break below this level – and more importantly, stay below it – to give sellers more confidence and finally put real pressure on the buyers, who have been relentless during the move higher. Even then, the uptrend may be a bit weak, but buyers still hold on to most of the control.
On the upside, if buyers can reclaim the 100 hourly moving average at 1.4206 and hold above it, focus will shift back towards last week’s double high at 1.4247. A break above this level would take the pair to its highest level since April 2025 and open the door towards the next major target: the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2025 high to the 2026 low at 1.42928 (see chart below).
Oh, Canada!, but what the coin has to do with it is show the strength of the soccer team. The United States will play Bosnia on Wednesday to book its ticket to the round of 16.
