USD/CAD fell modestly on the day, falling -0.07% after an early rally higher failed to gain momentum above key resistance. The pair briefly moved above the 100 hourly moving average and entered a swing zone between 1.3620 and 1.36305, but the lack of follow-through opened the door for sellers to reassert control in the North American session.
The price has since returned below that area and is currently trading near 1.3613. Despite the bearish bias, price action remains weak, with a narrow range of 25 pips on the day (1.3605 to 1.3630). This limited movement reflects that the market is still searching for conviction – but more importantly, sellers are maintaining a cover of the highs below the 1.3630 level, tilting the bias modestly to the downside and keeping buyers on the defensive.
Looking down, the next downside target comes between 1.3593 and 1.3600. A break below that area would increase bearish momentum and open the door for a move towards 1.3549. Below that, traders will be looking at the February and March swing lows between 1.3522 and 1.3532, followed by the February 11 low of 1.3503 and the January 30 year-to-date low of 1.3482.
For buyers to regain control, the price would need to return above 1.36305 and then break above the 200 hourly moving average at 1.36421. A sustained break above that area would change this bias, giving buyers more confidence while forcing sellers to reevaluate.
