- SaPrior was 622k
- New Home Sales changed by -7.3% vs. -6.2% previously
- Sales were down 6.8% from the May 2025 level of 622,000
This is a terrible report and this series has been disintegrating since October. The jump in borrowing rates during the war appears to have halted new home sales dramatically. This should be reversed with the war now over (hopefully) and oil prices falling. A tighter FOMC will likely help in the longer term as well.
There is some variation in this report but the three-month average is now at its lowest level since 2022 and the second lowest in a decade.
The decline was concentrated in the West, which fell by 26.9% month-on-month to 117,000 and fell by 17.0% year-on-year. The South, the largest region by size, fell 4.1% to 350,000. Both other regions advanced: the Midwest rose 16.2% to 79,000, the Northeast rose 3.0% to 34,000, the latter up 17.2% from a year earlier. On a year-to-date, not seasonally adjusted, basis, national sales are 7.0% lower than the same period in 2025.
The stock continued to build. The seasonally adjusted estimate for new homes for sale at the end of May was 496,000, up 2.3% from April and the highest in more than a year, though still 1.4% below the May 2025 level. At the current sales pace, that represents 10.3 months of supply, up from 9.3 months in April and 9.7 months a year earlier, and the highest supply reading for months in the last series. By construction stage, completed homes accounted for 324,000 of seasonally adjusted sales, with another 192,000 under construction and 64,000 yet to break ground.
Regarding pricing, the median sales price of new homes sold in May was $424,900, up 2.0% from April and virtually unchanged from the $424,800 recorded in May 2025. The median sales price was $540,600, up 7.8% month over month and 5.0% year over year. As in previous months, movements in the mean and median reflect shifts in the mix of homes sold by price stratum and region as much as they reflect price changes for comparable homes; The share of sales under $300,000 is close to 15%.
The statement repeated the standard caveats: The numbers are seasonally adjusted annual averages taken from sample surveys with wide confidence intervals. The monthly change of -7.3% in May has a range of ±13.3%, so the headline decline is statistically indistinguishable from zero at the 90% level, and the agencies note that it takes four months to determine a trend. The June report is scheduled to be released on July 24.
New home sales in the United States
