Trump calls for the firing of Jimmy Kimmel. The FCC is reviewing Disney’s licenses

President Trump and Melania Trump have called for comedian Jimmy Kimmel to be fired from ABC. The market for Kimmel to be fired or resign by May 31 is now in 5.5% Yes, down from 8% twenty-four hours ago.

The controversy stems from Kimmel’s recent monologue joking about Melania Trump. The FCC has reportedly begun reviewing Disney’s broadcast licenses, adding a separate lobbying track. Despite both developments, the odds have moved down, not up.

Market reaction

the May 31 market It saw a 43 pip decline earlier, and with 32 days to go until resolution, it is sitting at 5.5% Yes. It takes $6,265 to move the price by 5 pips, indicating moderate liquidity. The daily trading volume is $15,267, a small fraction of the contract’s notional value. Clearly, traders are skeptical that Kimmel can actually be ousted.

Why does it matter?

The key question is whether Disney will act under combined pressure from the FCC and the White House. The FCC license review gives the administration tangible influence beyond public statements. But the market’s downward movement suggests that traders see Disney soaking up the political heat rather than firing a late-night host over a monologue.

What are you watching?

A formal FCC complaint or public statements from Disney executives would be the most likely catalysts to change the odds. Any concrete action from either side could move the market quickly given the weakness in volume.

For those optimistic about Kimmel’s departure, yes share in 5 cents Pays $1 if he exits by May 31, A 20x He comes back. This bet requires Disney to make a decision to expel within about a month, in light of political pressure that it has so far resisted.

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