Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) may face a major correction in the coming months, with one trade analyst predicting stock It may drop as low as $125 by mid-October 2026.
Predictions by TradingShotsubscribed to TradingView mail on June 5, is based on Nvidia’s monthly and weekly chart structure, which shows the stock trading within a decade-long ascending channel pattern characterized by recurring bull and bear cycles.
According to the analysis, Nvidia may be approaching a cycle peak similar to those seen in 2018 and 2022, setting the stage for a long-term correction.
The bearish outlook comes despite Nvidia’s strong fundamentals and continued AI-driven growth. By press time, NVDA shares were trading at $204, having risen more than 10% year-to-date.
TradingShot He noted that previous cycle highs in 2018 and 2022 were followed by extended declines before Nvidia created new, longer-term lows.
The analyst believes that 2026 could represent the next major peak, pointing to bearish divergence in the monthly RSI (RSI) which has been in development since June 2024. Similar RSI patterns have historically preceded significant declines in Nvidia stock.
The forecast also shows Nvidia rebounding in March 2026 from 50 weeks Moving average It closely reflects the price action seen prior to previous market tops.
At the same time, the monthly RSI remains near the overbought level of 70, which coincided with significant declines after the 2018 and 2022 peaks.
Key Nvidia stock price levels to watch
According to the analysis, the 100-week moving average near $165 represents the lower limit of the downside target in the correction and corresponds to key support levels from September 2025 and March 2026.
If this level fails, Nvidia could extend its decline towards the 200-week moving average, which is expected to reach around $125 by mid-October 2026.
The $125 target would represent a deeper extension of the down cycle, although it is still less severe than the roughly 58% decline recorded during the 2022 Nvidia correction.
While the technical outlook points to higher downside risks, Nvidia’s underlying business fundamentals remain strong.
Nvidia stock basics
Meanwhile, Nvidia’s fundamentals remain strong despite the bearish technical outlook. For example, Semiconductors The giant reported record fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $68.1 billion, while full-year revenue rose to $215.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, driven primarily by demand for AI-focused data center products.
Growth continues, supported by strong adoption of Nvidia’s Blackwell platform, with the next generation Vera Rubin architecture scheduled to launch in the second half of 2026.
The company also sees significant long-term opportunities across AI infrastructure, inferential computing, robotics, autonomous systems, and enterprise AI.
Reflecting this strength, Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish on Nvidia and continue to expect upside from current levels.
