The price of Ethereum has risen more than 25% since late March, pulling back toward levels that defined the upper limit of its recent recovery range and testing the resistance that capped every previous attempt higher. The move was compelling enough to change sentiment — but a CryptoQuant analyst has just pointed out a discrepancy in on-chain data that complicates a bullish read and raises a question that a price chart can’t answer on its own.
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The analyst examines the exchange bid ratio – a metric that tracks the relationship between the exchange bid and the broader market. Historically, when this ratio falls sharply, it has been accompanied by price declines that form a bottom. The logic is clear and straightforward: a lower exchange supply means fewer coins available for immediate sale, which reduces selling pressure and indicates that the market is approaching an area where the price tends to find support.
The current chart shows this pattern, but only halfway. The ratio fell again to low levels, confirming the low exchange supply that the indicator aims to detect. What is missing is the corresponding lower prices that have historically accompanied it. Instead of falling to form a bottom next to the ratio, Ethereum price It continued to remain relatively high.
This gap – between the ratio that indicates a bottom should be forming and the price that has not yet corrected to form a bottom – is what the analyst has identified as the divergence that requires attention.
The ratio has reached the bottom. Price not followed. This gap tends to close
CryptoQuant Analyst explanation The difference is straightforward and does not overcomplicate what the data describes. The decline in supply followed by the exchange-bid ratio has already occurred – this part of the historical sequence is complete. What did not happen was the corresponding price movement that accompanied it historically. The market has received the signal and has not yet responded in the way the pattern indicates.
The analyst offers a specific explanation for the delay. The influence of derivatives can maintain prices at levels that the underlying spot market structure alone would not support. When positioning with leverage creates artificial demand – bids that exist due to borrowed capital rather than true buying conviction – the price can remain flexible for longer than on-chain data indicates. This flexibility is not a contradiction with reference. He is postponing her decision.
The historical record of these differences is consistent. They do not tend to stabilize upwards, with prices rising to justify the high level. They tend to go down, with the price falling in line with where the ratio says it should be. The gap between the current position of the ratio and the current position of the price is the distance the market may need to travel before the two return to alignment.
Ethereum’s 25% rise since late March has been real. The analyst’s warning does not mean that the recovery was wrong – it is that the price may still need to complete the bottoming process that the ratio has already indicated. The decline may be delayed. According to the data, it is unlikely to be cancelled.
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Ethereum is regaining structure but facing severe overhead resistance
Ethereum is trading near $2,280 after bouncing from the sub-$2,000 area, but the weekly chart shows the market is still stuck between recovery and structural resistance. The recent bounce has reclaimed the 50-week moving average, which is a constructive development, however the price remains compressed below the 100-week and 200-week moving averages, which continue the sideways trend to the downside.
This position is important. Historically, sustained bullish expansions occur when Ethereum recovers and stabilizes above the higher time frame averages. Until this happens, rallies tend to act as relief movements within a broader scope of consolidation or distribution.
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The $2200-2300 area is now acting as a pivot point. It previously served as support during the 2024 structure and is currently being retested from below. The market’s ability to hold this level will determine whether the recent move develops into a trend reversal or fades to another lower high.
Volume does not yet confirm strong conviction. While the bounce off the lows was sharp, subsequent buying was relatively weak compared to previous impulsive phases, suggesting a cautious engagement.
A break above $2,600 would change the structure decisively and open the way towards $3,000. Failure to hold $2,200 will expose Ethereum to a renewed downtrend, with $1,900 serving as the next major support area.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
