Key takeaways
- Rising supply and weak technical indicators could pressure the PI towards key support at $0.1184.
- About 16 million PI tokens are scheduled to be unlocked on Thursday, with another 14.8 million becoming eligible for migration to the mainnet on Friday, which could increase selling pressure.
Pi Network (PI) traded lower on Thursday after suffering three straight days of losses earlier in the week. The token remains trapped in a broader downtrend that has been ongoing since late April.
The recovery faces a major challenge in the near term as millions of new PI tokens are set to enter circulation, which could increase selling pressure and limit bullish momentum.
Major token openings can increase supply pressure
According to PiScan data, nearly 16 million PI tokens are scheduled to be opened on Thursday.
An additional 14.8 million PI tokens are expected to become eligible for migration to the mainnet on Friday, raising concerns about rising circulating supply.
Newly unlocked tokens will likely be transferred to centralized exchanges, increasing the potential for additional selling activity.
Historically, large token opening events often create short-term downside pressure as investors gain access to previously restricted holdings.
Network activity also indicates notable withdrawals between major wallets. PiScan data shows that three of the five largest transactions recorded in the past 24 hours involved the movement of approximately 255,000 PI tokens.
The technical outlook for the PI remains bearish
At the time of writing, the PI is trading above $0.1250, but the broader technical picture remains weak.
The token continues to trade below the major moving averages (50 days, 100 days, and 200 days) on the four-hour chart.
Aggregation of these indicators above the current price indicates that sellers continue to control the broader trend.
Technical momentum signals provide little evidence of a strong recovery. The Relative Strength Index is hovering near 43, indicating weak buying pressure and a lack of strong upward momentum.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and signal line remain just below zero, reflecting persistent bearish conditions despite the recent recovery.
Together, these indicators suggest that any short-term rallies may have difficulty sustaining momentum.
If the rally resumes, PI will need to overcome the $0.1299 resistance to enable it to target higher supply areas at $0.1360 (100-period EMA) and $0.1400.
However, if the downtrend continues, the bulls will need to defend the key support levels at $0.1184 and $0.1000.
A break below $0.1184 could expose the PI further downside and possibly trigger a move towards the $0.1000 region.
While Pi Network has managed to stabilize after several days of losses, the combination of weak technical momentum and upcoming token opens still favors the bears.
Unless demand strengthens enough to absorb incoming supply, the current recovery could turn into a temporary relief rally, with the recently identified support level at $0.1184 remaining the crucial line to watch in the coming days.
