The Iranian headquarters of Khatam al-Anbia announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all maritime traffic. The military headquarters points to American violations of the agreement to end the war and ongoing Israeli violations of the ceasefire, in addition to the failure to withdraw in Lebanon. They warn that this is only the “first step.” The Revolutionary Guard issued a similar statement yesterday.
There is a risk that has not been discussed enough that Iran wants to keep fighting. They have this huge leverage now with Trump publicly admitting that the oil situation is going to get very bad in four weeks. They may also feel that the United States will never stay in the current deal because Trump receives criticism from even his strongest supporters, so it is better to fight now rather than later. It also appears to be an opportunity to break ties between the US and Israel, which would be a huge win for them.
On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine that Iran will get a better deal than it is getting now, so politicians inside Iran – who likely fear for their lives – are trying to get them to accept the deal.
Ultimately, there is a supposed ceasefire in Lebanon that is endlessly violated by all parties, and it is difficult to imagine this deal working because of that. Israel says it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon, and the Iranian military leadership insists that this is a precondition.
On the US side, Trump appears desperate to find a way out, and Witkopf and Kushner are in Switzerland. VP Vance said he expects to go to Switzerland “in the next couple of days” and says he is confident they can maintain the ceasefire.
The question now is whether Iran will attempt to impose the final “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz through military means. West Texas Intermediate crude finished higher by about $1 on Friday despite a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon.
Update: The Iranian negotiating team is still heading to Switzerland, and their spokesman said: “Our focus is to demand accountability regarding the other party’s commitments and clarify exactly how they plan to meet them. If any part of their commitments is left unfulfilled, the entire memorandum of understanding will be in trouble.”
