Tesla (TSLA) stock closed last week at $313.03, down nearly 18% in five sessions and its biggest weekly loss since 2022. Two separate chart analyzes now point to $296 as the next downside target.
The sell-off erased the $350 support area after record revenue Q2 results were coupled with a sharp loss of profits. Early premarket prices on Monday indicated a modest recovery attempt towards $321.
Miss profits set off the slide
Tesla reported revenue of $28.24 billion in the second quarter, up 26% year over year and above estimates. However, modified Profits $0.33 per share missed the consensus of $0.51, and operating margin fell to 1.4%.
Capital spending jumped 142% to $5.79 billion, as the company funneled money into artificial intelligence, Optimus robots, and robotaxi production. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time since early 2024.
Some on Wall Street see the reaction as overdone. Dan Ives, managing director of Wedbush Securities, described the increase in capital expenditures as a timing issue rather than a broken thesis, saying: CNBC:
“This is an ongoing arms race and we are only 15% of the way there.”
last Analysts There remains a split on whether patience with the AI story justifies the current valuation as margins compress.
Weekly chart loses $350 as trendline test begins
The weekly chart shows the extent of the damage. Last week’s candle fell 17.81%, breaking the $350 area that had been a support since September 2025. This area is now turning into a resistance area.
The price currently sits on an uptrend line drawn from the 2024 lows, a line that has defined Tesla’s broader uptrend for more than two years. A weekly close below this level would represent a structural breakout, not just a correction.
Below the trend line, the next important demand zone is around $260, an area that has produced strong reversals in 2024 and 2025. Overall, $470 remains the key ceiling that has capped every rally since late 2024.
Historically, the cup and handle are bullish pattern Expect a target of $759 for TSLA. This scenario only comes into play on a confirmed weekly close above $470, which now seems far away.
Tesla stock price prediction puts $296 in play
The daily chart provides a more immediate signal. Since its May highs near $455, TSLA has traded within a bearish parallel channel, with both limits respected for about three months.
On July 23, the day after earnings, the price broke below the lower limit of the channel and the $350 area in one move. The session recorded the highest daily volume in months, indicating conviction behind the collapse rather than a shakeout.
The movement measured from the channel breakdown forecasts a target of $296.16, roughly 5% below Friday’s close. This level is also just below the weekly trend line, making the $296 to $310 area the main battleground this week.
If sellers break above the $296 level, the door will open towards the $260 demand zone, another 12% lower. In contrast, the bulls will need to reclaim $350 and re-enter the channel to negate the bearish structure.
The next catalyst may not be technical. Any tangible progress in the economics of robotics or Optimus’ timeline could change sentiment faster than the chart suggests. Until then, Tesla stock is trading between a broken channel at the top and a 2-year trend line at the bottom, and one of them should capitulate.
this post Tesla stock collapses after worst week since 2022, charts point to $296 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
