Tehran condemns the US detention of Iranian oil tankers, describing it as piracy

Tehran described Washington’s seizure of Iranian oil tankers as “outright piracy.” The market for Iran successfully targets ships by April 30 80% Yes, up from 19% just 24 hours ago.

## Market reaction

The ship targeting market rose by 61 percentage points in one day. Daily volume is $1,280 in USDC, and it only takes $101 to move the odds by 5 percentage points. This is a thinly traded market, and is vulnerable to sharp fluctuations in any new development.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market (which will be dissolved at the end of June) did not record any trades. Traders’ interest in returning to pre-crisis shipping levels appears to have dried up as the diplomatic situation worsens.

## Why it matters

Disturbances in Iranian oil exports directly affect the outlook for crude oil prices. The possibility of crude oil reaching $90 by the end of June could rise if tanker seizures continue or if Iran retaliates against commercial shipping. Any move in the negotiations between the United States and Iran or any military position would affect this market as well.

## What to watch

– Iranian military leadership statements about retaliatory actions – Changes in US naval deployment near the Strait of Hormuz – Any resumption of US-Iranian diplomatic channels – Commercial activity in the normalization market in Hormuz that is completely dead

## CTA API

Buy Yes On 80 cents It pays if Iran targets ships by April 30, but poor liquidity means prices can quickly move against you.

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