Bitcoin is still in a bear market but may be entering its final phase, according to a chart analyst who tracks the cryptocurrency’s four-year historical cycle, with a bottom likely to form as soon as October.
I have followed a Bitcoin course before
Bitcoin has historically moved through roughly one year of bear market followed by three years of bull market, based on patterns dating back to previous cycles. The current decline began after Bitcoin’s October 2025 rally, putting the cryptocurrency almost on track to enter the final quarter of a decline. The analyst said.
Bitcoin has already reached the full resistance zone of $66,230 to $76,640 for the third quarter, a level that the analyst previously indicated as the maximum for this phase of the cycle. A rejection from resistance could open a downward path towards $56,500, then $44,000, with $39,000 set as another downside target if selling accelerates.
Near term levels to watch
On shorter time frames, Bitcoin was rejected near $66,300 in mid-July before breaking below the uptrend line, which now sits near $65,300 and could serve as resistance going forward. Near-term support is in the $59,369 to $62,533 area, the analyst says, describing this as the key area to watch ahead of the weekly close.
A separate resistance band between $64,922 and $66,227 is also tracked as a ceiling for any short-term bounce, based on Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent rally.
Seasonal patterns indicate a volatile August
Seasonal data reviewed by the analyst shows that August and September have historically been weak months for Bitcoin during past bear market years, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, while July has typically been the strongest month in any bear market year. In 2022, Bitcoin extended its gains until mid-August before reversing, a pattern the analyst said could be repeated, though he cautioned it was not a scenario in which it would trade aggressively.
The discrete timing model refers to October
The discrete cycle tracker used by the analyst identifies the prevailing 260-day rhythm in Bitcoin’s price movement. This pattern correctly pointed to the top of the cycle that formed in late May, which was followed by the current sell-off. Based on the same rhythm, the tool indicates a potential big bottom forming in October of this year, with a difference of two to four weeks in either direction.
The analyst stressed that both seasonal and cyclical tools describe general trends rather than precise forecasts, and that there is no way that can guarantee exactly when or where the Bitcoin bear market will end.
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