Key takeaways
- XLM fell 2% on Thursday after the 100-day moving average set the tone for a short-term recovery.
- Open interest in XLM futures is stabilizing, but a decline in the ratio of long to short contracts indicates a bearish bias.
XLM fluctuates lower as leveraged market loses confidence
Stellar Coin (XLM) extended its losses on Thursday, as the coin struggles to regain momentum as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.1798 continues to limit upward attempts, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.
Sentiment in the derivatives market also points to increasing bearish expectations. Data from Quinglass It shows that the open interest (OI) of XLM futures remains high at $114.70 million after rising sharply from $99.45 million earlier this week, indicating continued trader activity despite the weak price action.
However, bearish positions still dominate. The buy-to-sell ratio currently stands at 0.7632 – a level that has remained below 1 since mid-January – indicating that traders are increasingly favoring short positions and anticipating further decline for XLM.
Technical Outlook: XLM price may fall below $0.1700
The 4-hour chart of XLM/USD remains bearish and active, indicating that the bears have regained control in the near term.
XLM is trading below the key 100-day EMA while remaining stable above the 50-day EMA at $0.1669.
Momentum indicators are still showing some signs of resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the 62 level on the four-hour time frame, and remains above the neutral midpoint, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to trade above its signal line, suggesting that buyers have not completely lost control.
However, downside risks remain high. If XLM price falls below the 50-day EMA support at $0.1669, the token could slide towards the key consolidation support area at $0.1471 – a level that has held steady since early February.
On the upside, the bulls will need to push XLM above the 100-day EMA at $0.1798 to support bullish sentiment.
A daily candle close above that resistance could pave the way for a move towards the 200-day EMA near $0.2101.
