Key takeaways
- Solana (SOL) has rebounded above its 50-day moving average at $76.82 after a 4% rise.
- High futures trading volume and positive funding rates indicate growing bullish sentiment among retail traders.
- Solana ETFs have posted two consecutive days of zero inflows, indicating weak institutional demand.
Solana (SOL) continued its rebound on Wednesday, rising above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after rising nearly 4% in the previous session.
The rebound comes as improving sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is encouraging renewed retail participation, while institutional investors remain cautious despite the broader market rally.
Retail traders return to Solana futures
Recent derivatives data suggests that retail traders are becoming more optimistic about Solana’s short-term outlook.
according to Queen Glassopen interest in SOL futures remained stable at around $4.91 billion over the past 24 hours, indicating that traders are maintaining existing leveraged positions rather than exiting the market.
Meanwhile, futures trading volume jumped 15% to about $6.90 billion, reflecting stronger market activity and continued position building.
Adding to the positive outlook, Solana’s funding ratio remains in positive territory at around 0.0040%, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions – a sign that bullish sentiment is strengthening among retail sector participants.
While retail activity has improved, institutional demand has yet to show similar strength.
Data from SoSoValue suggests so Solana Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). It recorded two consecutive trading sessions with net inflows this week.
The lack of new investments in ETFs suggests that traditional investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach despite the recent rebound in cryptocurrency prices.
This discrepancy between retail enthusiasm and institutional caution may affect the sustainability of Solana’s recovery.
Solana Price Analysis: $81.50 remains the key breakout level
From a technical perspective, Solana strengthened after reclaiming the 50-day EMA at $76.82.
The token is also trading above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at USD 76.92, measured from the decline between USD 98.41 and USD 60.13, reinforcing the improving structure in the short term.
However, SOL still faces significant resistance from the downtrend line positioned near $81.50, while the 200-day moving average at $94.52 remains a major long-term barrier.
A decisive daily close above $81.50 would confirm a breakout from the prevailing downtrend and could trigger a move towards the $88.56 resistance level and the 200-day moving average at $94.52.
Technical indicators indicate that bullish momentum is slowly increasing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 54, indicating modest buying pressure without entering the overbought zone.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is approaching a bullish crossover near its signal line, reflecting a shift in neutral to positive momentum that could support additional upside if buying pressure persists.
If Solana faces renewed selling pressure, traders will likely watch the following support levels:
- 50-day moving average: $76.82
- Previous uptrend line: $68.88
- Lowest spin: $60.13
Staying above the 50-day EMA would help sustain the current recovery, while a break below it could expose SOL to a deeper pullback towards lower support areas.
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