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📉 Detailed technical analysis of XAUUSD (Gold): Liquidity Sweep and Trendline Breakdown
Market context and current structure:
Gold is currently at a critical stage. Analyzing the 30-minute chart, the price has been respecting the uptrend line, consistently recording higher lows. However, the upward momentum is clearly slowing down, which is a clear indication that market makers are engineering liquidity to the upside before starting a significant downward move.
Size profile and main areas:
The Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) provides a clear narrative on the chart:
POC (Point of Control): The price is currently trading near the POC and low value area (around 4440 – 4460), which acts as a temporary dynamic support level.
Lower Supply Zone (4475 – 4485): This is the immediate resistance block where the price previously faced strong rejection.
Upper FP (4490 – 4510): This is our main area of interest. It represents the FVG (Fair Value Gap) and the supply zone where a huge pool of liquidity is resting on the upside (buy stops).
Trade Plan (two bearish scenarios):
As shown in the forecast on the chart, my overall bias remains quite short. I am actively monitoring two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Instant Rejection): The price consolidates along the uptrend line, clicks the lower supply box (4480), and experiences an immediate and violent rejection that results in the trendline collapsing.
Scenario 2 (Liquidity Sweep – High Probability): This fits perfectly with smart money concepts. Market makers pump the price to trap early retail sellers, create a fake move above the existing structure, and sweep liquidity straight into the FP area (4500 area). Once this liquidity is obtained, we expect a broad sell-off that will violently break the uptrend line.
Execution and confirmation (invitation candle):
I’m not implementing blindly in these areas. I am eagerly awaiting the printing of the Sellers Call Candle.
If the market clicks on the FP zone and prints a strong bearish candle on the close, it will serve as an incentive to execute a sell trade.
A final breakdown and close below the uptrend line will be final confirmation that the bears have taken complete control.
Note: The chart indicates upcoming high-impact US news, making strict risk management essential. A spike in volatility due to news could perfectly trigger the liquidity sweep described in Scenario 2.
Watch closely how the price reacts at these key levels. If you missed my previous analysis, make sure you don’t miss this one. Follow my profile and read my bio to join the private community to learn entry levels and exact profit points. commerce. logic. profit. HowUSD
