Semis has just given us the first real test of the 50 EMA since the start of the April round. The price reached 546 yesterday, printed a rejection wick, and then bounced. Textbook so far. First test of the bullish 50 EMA after buying a strong trend leg.

But that’s what I’m actually seeing, and it’s above the price, not below.

We lost 584.50, which was the minimum consolidation level for the entire month of June. This level is now considered overhead resistance, with the 20 EMA falling right into it. That double layer at 584-585 is the lock on this chart.

Size doesn’t help the bulls either. The largest modern bars are in red. This looks more like a distribution than a quiet decline.

So this is my framework: Support is the 533.74 – 546 area, the horizontal level plus the high of the 50 EMA. Resistance 584.50. Between the two, it’s the scope of the decision, nothing more. I wouldn’t be excited about price action within that area. IMO: Recovered 584.50 on daily close and this pullback was just a breather. 629.72 Then the high price comes back into play.

Lose 533.74 on daily close and the range collapsed. First stop is at 506.94, but the real buy zone is below where the bullish 100 SMA converges with the 463-484 shelf. This is where I would expect a serious bounce if we clear.

The RSI is at 45, and the momentum has been completely reset, not oversold. Room in both directions, so it decides the price, not the oscillator. If we retest 533, watch for the RSI to form a higher low against a marginal price low. This divergence would be a bullish signal worth acting on.

It is important to note: The price may continue to trade sideways until the next semifinal earnings announcement. I would avoid leveraged ETFs, as time decay can erode their value significantly.

This is my personal technical analysis and trading plan, not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

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