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Ahmed Barakat
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Sam Altman, of ChatGPT AI, put a clean number on SpaceX’s stock price forecast, treating the post-IPO pullback as an entry point rather than a warning sign. The model expects the share price to reach $225 by the end of 2026, which means an increase of approximately 55% compared to where the shares are today, with the share price potentially reaching $250 or more if growth accelerates.
The bull case anchors everything to a revenue number that most investors haven’t fully processed yet. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, with Starlink contributing about 60% of that total, meaning its satellite internet business alone produces more annual revenue than most mid-sized technology companies.
This combination of exposure to broadband infrastructure, aerospace, defense and AI in one ticker is truly rare and is exactly what the model suggests when justifying the premium valuation.
Starlink’s subscriber base continues to expand through recurring revenue that becomes more predictable each quarter. SpaceX maintains an unparalleled launch cadence that no competitor has come close to matching. Starship continues to make progress toward full reusability, and emerging AI infrastructure opportunities associated with satellite connectivity and computing at the edge add an entirely new growth layer on top of the existing business.
Together, these factors support renewed momentum after what the model considers a normal post-IPO decline rather than a fundamental business issue.
The bear condition indicates three specific risks rather than vague concerns about the downside. A major delay in Starship would undermine the reuse thesis that justifies so much of the long-term valuation premium. The continued pressure from AI infrastructure spending on profitability could compress margins faster than revenue growth can offset.
Investors’ rejection of a valuation that remains exceptionally high relative to current sales is the simplest and most pressing risk since SpaceX went public at a valuation already priced in years of future growth. Under this scenario, the model sees shares drifting toward $110 to $120 instead.
SpaceX Price Prediction: SpaceX is heading toward a post-IPO floor with a $225 target sitting just a ways away
The 3-hour chart shows SpaceX price at $145.35 after falling sharply from IPO week highs near $219, set in mid-June.
The entire move from the IPO high down to current levels took less than a month, the kind of aggressive post-IPO repricing that happens when early momentum buyers take profits and retail enthusiasm collides with the reality of a perfectly priced stock.
The price has been falling in a series of lower highs since the peak on June 17, with each rebound attempt setting a new lower high before falling again.
The recent sessions from July 8-10 were particularly weak, as the stock has steadily lost ground and is now trading near its lowest level since the IPO opened.
Resistance first lies near $155, the level that capped the most recent rebound attempt in early July, with a heavier ceiling near $173, where the post-peak consolidation zone lived for several days before collapsing. Support remains near $145, which is the current testing area, and the lowest this stock has traded since going public.
Below, there is no clear technical floor on this chart as the IPO date is too short to establish meaningful ex ante support. The general pattern here is the classic post-IPO distribution, where each day’s stock spending since the initial surge serves to burn off early excess enthusiasm rather than build any kind of base.
Momentum appears weak and continues to point bearish on the 3-hour candles, with sellers maintaining control throughout recent trading sessions. For the $225 bull case to become technically relevant, SpaceX first needs to stop making lower highs, reclaim $160, and hold it through a series of earnings-driven news flow that confirms Starlink’s revenue trajectory that the model is based on.
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LiquidChain attracts the attention of SpaceX owners: ChatGPT AI predicts it is the next 100x
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