Risk is back on the table with the return of cryptocurrency ETFs


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Today, we analyze Bitcoin’s movement over the past week, how ETFs saw net inflows for the first time in nearly four weeks, and app and on-chain revenues. We’re also looking at who President Trump’s next nominee to chair the Federal Reserve is.

Indicators

BTC rebounded from the lows of $85,000 and is back at $92,000. Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin has risen by 5%, with significant fluctuations throughout. In particular, BTC underperformed during the EU session, while it outperformed in the US and Asia-Pacific sessions.

Over the past week, oracle tokens, lending, and the Ethereum ecosystem have performed well, each rising just over 4%. Cryptocurrency stocks performed the best, rising 6.7%, mainly due to HOOD’s outperformance.

The Nasdaq 100 (+1.70%) and S&P 500 (+0.78%) continue to rise, while gold underperforms slightly (-0.85%).

In terms of worst-case performance, gaming has outperformed significantly on the downside, with returns of -23% over the past week. LGCT was the worst performer, with its price falling -75% over the past week.

Charts for the week

The odds have risen (as high as 78% on Calcci) that Kevin Hassett will be President Trump’s next nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, an announcement Trump recently confirmed was imminent. Hassett, a close White House ally, is favored because he is in line with the president’s demand for much lower interest rates to provide cheaper consumer and mortgage loans.

Bitcoin ETF flows reversed sharply in November, recording significant outflows after a steady series of inflows from May through October. The month saw redemptions worth approximately $3.46 billion, completely wiping out the $3.42 billion in new inflows seen last month and the worst outflows since February 2025 ($3.56 billion). This reversal highlights how quickly sentiment has deteriorated despite months of strong accumulation. The alignment between ETF inflows and price action remained intact, with November outflows closely mirroring BTC’s double-digit monthly decline.

The first week of December was the first positive net Bitcoin ETF inflow week since the last week of October, with $70.2 million in net Bitcoin ETF inflows. Ethereum and Solana ETFS saw higher net inflows over the past week, at $312 million and $108 million, respectively.

In terms of network revenue, we are seeing similar numbers to what we saw the previous week, with Hyperliquid leading the way with 35% of all network revenue, followed by Tron (20%) and Solana (15%). It is worth noting that BNB revenue is still at its lowest levels after the highs in October, with Hyperliquid and Solana accounting for the majority of that.

App revenue has stopped declining (now at $38 million, 10% higher than last week), after four weeks of net decline across all apps tracked. Hyperliquid continues to lead the way (35%), followed by Pump.fun (25%) and Axiom (8%).

Helios’ Lustin and Ichigo proposed SIMD411, which aims to accelerate Solana’s emissions schedule by doubling the deflation rate from -15% to -30%, while keeping the final inflation of 1.5% unchanged. This simple and expected change would raise the inflation rate from 4.14% today to 1.5% within 3.1 years (early 2029), instead of 6.2 years (early 2032). If implemented, SIMD411 would cut 22.3 million soles ($2.9 billion) of emissions after six years versus the current inflation path, reducing “leaky bucket” selling pressure.


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