RaveDAO (RAVE) price is retesting the $20 high after a bounce. A potential double peak could take the bears under control within hours as momentum weakens.
Momentum indicators have eased, open interest is holding near record levels, and on-chain data is indicating distribution. Each signal independently increases the odds of a pullback towards Fibonacci support mid-cycle.
The open interest flashes with a late cycle warning
Rave DAO Open interest rose from almost zero on April 9 to a peak of $510 million on April 13. Coinglass data shows that the explosive buildup has since split into two lower highs.
The current reading is approaching $500 million with RAVE price falling towards $19. However, the number is still slightly lower than the record set on April 13 even though the spot price is recording new highs.
This difference indicates that leveraged participation diminishes with each upside attempt. In perpetual markets, the decline of a marginal equity investment to a high price is often preceded by a long series of liquidations.
For the thesis to flip, open interest would have to exceed $510 million with a decisive move across $20. Until then, positioning risks remain skewed to the downside.
Exchange outflows appear bullish but may mask the distribution
The image on the chain initially appears to support an upward movement. Arkham data shows RAVE leaving exchanges approximately every hour for 24 consecutive sessions. Cumulative net outflows reached nearly 40,000 tokens.
At current prices near $17.89, these withdrawals represent approximately $700,000 in spot transfers from trading venues. Historically, outflows indicate a buildup and decline of inventory on the sell side.
However, context complicates that reading. Previous BIC analysis The same $20 retest was marked. The code has rose Over 6,000% in 7 days, and large holders often roll profits into cold storage near local peaks.
The outflow figure of $700,000 is also small compared to the $500 million in open interest. This gap confirms that permanent demand, not immediate demand, is driving prices at the present time.
RAVE price targets $15.34 if the double peak is confirmed
RAVE price retests $20 on Bitget 1H chart. The previous uptrend line was broken on April 15, and since then it has served as resistance three times. The price reached an intraday high of $19.30 in the latest attempt.
The RSI now reads 68.5, which is down from 72 points during the first peak at $20. The moving average convergence and divergence on the hourly chart is also showing a bearish crossover. Both indicators indicate weak momentum.
If the double top is confirmed (blue circles), the measured movement targets are aligned with the Fibonacci retracement levels on the chart. The 0.236 level is located at $15.34, providing an initial flow target.
A deeper leg could pull RAVE towards the 0.382 retracement level at $12.46 or the 0.5 pivot at $10.13. Any of these levels would represent a meaningful reset from the current price and provide clearer context for the token Climate prediction.
The bearish hypothesis is invalidated by a clean 1-hour close above $20. An expansion of new open interest by $510 million would confirm this shift. Without both, the burden of proof remains on the bulls.
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