Amy Oldenburg, head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley, said Bitcoin reaching $1 million is possible over time, while warning that a move of that magnitude would likely require either a long adoption cycle or significant disruption to traditional markets.
Talk to Nathalie Brunel Currency storiesOldenburg framed the next phase of Bitcoin adoption less as a sudden “J-curve” and more as a gradual institutional build, driven by access to the product, advisor education, custodial infrastructure, and customer demand. Her comments come as Morgan Stanley continues to expand its digital assets portfolio through… spot ETFs, Wealth management and E*Commercial presence.
Morgan Stanley executive sees Bitcoin price rising
Oldenburg avoided setting a direct target price, but did address the idea of Bitcoin eventually reaching seven figures. “I don’t understand why we couldn’t,” she said, referring to $1 million worth of bitcoin. “Out of everything I’ve ever seen, I’ll believe anything is possible.”
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However, she took issue with the idea that such a move should be expected quickly or without wider consequences. “Anything extreme has to happen over time,” Oldenburg said. “Because if something extreme has happened in my mind, that means another extreme event has happened.”
This distinction shaped much of her broader outlook. When asked what Bitcoin adoption might look like five or 10 years from now, Oldenburg said she expects continued growth through 2030, but not necessarily a vertical repricing. “I don’t think you’re going to see just this amazing J-curve that’s like we get to 2027 and it just takes off. I think it’s going to be very similar to what we’ve already experienced where you’ve just continued to see more coming in, getting educated, figuring it out, progressing, kind of progressing here.”
Her comments reflect the tension that now characterizes institutional bitcoin: more access, more credibility, more infrastructure, but it’s still a market that hasn’t fully decoupled from risky asset behavior. Oldenburg noted that bitcoin still confuses some clients because it is often presented as a real asset or a neutral reserve asset, yet it is not always traded. Like gold during periods of total stress.
Counselor education remains a bottleneck
Morgan Stanley’s typical portfolio guidance remains measurable. Oldenburg said the company has A BTC allocation of 0% to 2% is recommended in some wallets and 2% to 4% in more aggressive wallets.depending on the client’s risk profile. But she said advisor adoption continues to lag behind client interest, largely because the suite of products and assets themselves still requires education.
The company’s recently launched Bitcoin ETP, MSBT, had what Oldenburg described as the best first-day ETF debut in Morgan Stanley’s history. The product is designed to bring institutional architecture to the market, she said, launching with a 14 basis point management fee and a custodial setup that includes Coinbase and BNY. She said the goal is to push more traditional financial infrastructure into Bitcoin products rather than simply replicating existing offerings.
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Oldenburg also highlighted the difference between owning Bitcoin directly and holding shares in a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, a point she said still requires education. “I love people telling me I was exposed to bitcoin, so if something goes wrong, I have bitcoin,” she said. “I don’t think you don’t own bitcoin. You have shares in a bitcoin exchange-traded fund that provides you exposure to the price of bitcoin.”
This distinction is important as Morgan Stanley begins offering more services around Bitcoin exposure. Clients who move exposure to bitcoin into an exchange-traded product on a wealth platform may be treated as wealth clients and, depending on the size of their holdings, have access to lending against the position, Oldenburg said. It cited a “50% issuance rate” on the Bitcoin ETF, which means the company can lend up to half the value of the product.
Banks still need better regulatory treatment
Oldenburg said banks are not avoiding Bitcoin because of hostility toward the asset, but because capital treatment, regulatory obligations and balance sheet efficiency still determine how they allocate resources. For banks to hold bitcoin directly or use it more widely as collateral, she said the environment would have to become more supportive.
She also warned that crypto assets are often lumped together even though they serve different purposes. She said that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Ripple should not be treated as interchangeable just because they fall under the same classification of “cryptocurrencies.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $62,825.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
