Investor Mark Yusko says Dogecoin’s entire value depends on one thing: Elon Musk never sells. Yusko made the comparison while explaining why he views SpaceX’s recent IPO in the same way he views meme currency, as an asset backed almost entirely by faith in its most famous backers.
Compare SpaceX with Dogecoin
Yusko says so Elon Musk and Mark Cuban own most of the entire Dogecoin supply, with a wide range of retail holders convinced that the token holds real value on top of that. “If Elon sold one doge, the price of the doge would drop to zero,” Yusko said, arguing that the price only exists because its largest holders chose not to sell.
He compares SpaceX’s IPO structure to Dogecoin, describing it as a similar cult asset. In his view, SpaceX isn’t exactly outliers, because it runs an actual business with an active satellite division. However, Yusko sees the basic dynamic looking familiar: a small float, concentrated ownership, and a wave of enthusiasm doing most of the work to support the price.
Why is SpaceX thought to be overvalued?
Yusko said SpaceX has only floated 4% of its shares, keeping 96% tightly locked up, split between Musk and a group of venture investors. He argues that the structure, coupled with an exception that allows SpaceX to join major indices despite not making any profits, effectively turns retail and retirement money into overvalued securities. “To me, this is really theft,” he said. “I mean, call it like it is.”
He points to Tesla’s trajectory as a preview of what could happen with SpaceX. Tesla shares rose about tenfold after a similar hype cycle and short squeeze, then held steady for four and a half years while revenue declined and free cash flow turned negative, he said.
Math problem, according to Yusko
He describes SpaceX’s starting valuation of $2 trillion as a mathematical impossibility. Yusko argues that buying SpaceX today is not like buying early shares of Apple or Microsoft, because those companies started as small businesses that evolved into essential infrastructure. By contrast, SpaceX is already valued on a scale that requires it to be worth roughly half the expected US GDP for early investors to see the kind of returns some expect.
He said SpaceX’s AI ambitions, including data centers in space, are not technologically feasible in the near term, and he expects the company’s cash flow to remain negative for years. Yusko said that once lockdown restrictions end and insiders start selling, he expects the price to fall sharply.
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