JPMorgan has just turned cautious on gold in the short term. The bank cut its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 by about 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from about $6,000. The recalibration comes in the wake of weak demand from key purchasing sectors.
This move signals new caution ahead, even as JPMorgan keeps its long-term bullish thesis fully intact.
JPMorgan cuts its gold forecast by 25%
Price forecasts are analysts’ predictions of where an asset could trade during a specific future period. JP Morgan Now projects The average price of gold was $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. Furthermore, it sees the metal rising to $4,500 in the fourth quarter.
The reduction is significant in size. Bank Previously targeted Nearly $6,000 per ounce by Q4. As a result, the new target of $4,500 represents a decline of approximately 25% from the previous forecast for the same period.
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The recalibration stems from weak demand. Weak purchasing power among the main centers of demand for gold. Moreover, the metal has become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, limiting the price ceiling in the near term.
The bank described the situation as “limited in scope.” as a result of, Traders should expect a sideways price Action before any recovery takes hold in the second half.
Other institutions remain more optimistic. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and central bank diversification in emerging markets.
In addition, UBS targets $5,200 Over the next 12 months as markets reevaluate Fed policy and pressure on the dollar intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is also looking at $5,200 In the second half of 2026, but he warns that gold needs stronger inflows from ETFs first.
The precious metal is currently trading at $4,175, up 1.26% in the past 24 hours. However, it is now down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026. According to to TradingView data.
Why does JPMorgan’s long-term bullish view remain?
Despite the downgrade, JP Morgan’s medium- and long-term view remains strongly positive. The bank pointed to two structural forces that could push gold prices through 2027. Each factor supports demand beyond the current short-term phase of consolidation across global markets.
- Firstly, Central banks around the world continue to accumulate gold reserves At an increasing pace. Furthermore, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to continue to rise over the coming months. Both trends provide a solid floor under prices across the entire forecast.
- Second, institutional investors continue to allocate significant portions of their investment portfolios to gold for hedging purposes. Moreover, this pattern shows no sign of reversing. As a result, JP Morgan expects gold to maintain its role as a safe haven asset and alternative reserve currency.
JPMorgan’s forecast also has implications for cryptocurrency markets. Gold and Bitcoin are traded as competing macro hedges Throughout 2025 and into 2026. As a result, a “limited” gold price will likely shift some institutional capital towards the cryptocurrency market in the short term.
However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means that gold will not lose its importance as a store of value anytime soon. The near-term caution simply reflects a pause rather than a structural break in the broader multi-year uptrend.
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