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Louis Navellier sees a 40% uptick from here… Graduation boos tell a story (but not the story you think)… Why Jonathan Rose and Mark Chaikin want you to watch what money actually does…
As I write on Wednesday, oil prices are down about 4% on reports that the framework agreement between the United States and Iran could restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within a month of a final agreement.
Iranian state television claimed to have a copy of a draft memorandum of understanding, in which Tehran committed to returning commercial shipping to pre-war levels – although Iran and Oman would jointly manage traffic through the strait, and US forces would withdraw from the region.
As I write this article, stocks are hovering near record highs as traders consider whether the trade will actually close.
This caution is warranted. This conflict has seen many moments that seemed like breakthroughs, only to give way to the next round of escalation. So, the pattern here suggests patience over enthusiasm.
However, this appears to be real progress, so we are encouraged.
We’ll keep you updated as this story develops.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 30% in less than two months
It was less ‘high’ and more ‘torn’.
But this meteoric performance raises an obvious question…
Is this sustainable? Or are we just one away from bad data popping the “AI bubble” that the bears predicted?
Before we get into speculation, let’s check in on someone who was right about this market.
Legendary investor Louis Navellier carefully analyzed this rally and the broader market. His reading is not what the Bears were hoping for.
Today, we face an environment that is eerily similar to that of the late 1990s – and this gives us an incredible opportunity.
Our friends at Bespoke recently released a chart comparing the Nasdaq’s performance during the Internet boom of the late 1990s, led by Netscape, and the AI revolution led by ChatGPT in 2022.
The conclusion is astonishing: ChatGPT has done for artificial intelligence what Netscape did for the Internet — and in return, created a stunning boom in related technology stocks.
In fact, the current path of the NASDAQ is incredibly similar to the path it took after Netscape. In other words, the AI revolution is parallel to the Internet boom. We are experiencing it again!
Lewis doesn’t ignore the skeptics or the bear issue. He is quick to acknowledge that a break – especially in the Nasdaq – would not be surprising.
These possibilities increase as we approach summer – typically a bumpy time of year for the broad market. But if/when such a decline occurs, Lewis urges investors not to overreact.
Expect normal fluctuations in a healthy bull market, but don’t see it as the beginning of the end.
In fact, going back to the dot-com parallel, Bespoke notes that a pullback would mimic the Nasdaq’s decline between late May and October 1998.
This upside comes with a warning
The gains Lewis expects are not for the broad market or for the average consumer discretionary stock.
For the most part, it’s for stocks related to building AI infrastructure.
But if that’s what you’re investing in today, here’s Lewis with his predictions:
Personally, I think our AI and data center stocks will be another 30% or 40% higher between now and the end of the year.
The reason is simple: companies’ sales and profits continue to accelerate due to the massive backlog of orders.
This huge backlog of orders ensures that the AI revolution and data center boom will continue for at least the next three years. It also ensures that profits in AI and data center stocks will continue to accelerate for the foreseeable future.
Those who realize this opportunity will achieve tremendous prosperity in the years to come.
It’s a bold claim: a 30% to 40% increase by the end of the year — from a market that’s already up 30% since late March.
But while the bears may object, the fundamental earnings data backs it up. Hyperscaler capex continues to climb. The backlog of AI infrastructure is real. And stocks in the middle of this AI construct generate years’ average returns in just weeks — sometimes days.
Is AI really taking entry-level jobs? Here’s what the data actually says
Now, let’s move on to a story that speaks directly to the question of how long this bull can last.
On May 8, at the University of Central Florida’s College of Arts and Humanities commencement, a speaker named Gloria Caulfield—a vice president at Tavistock Development Corporation—took the stage and told the graduating class:
The rise of artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution.
The audience did not applaud politely. They burst into boos. Someone shouted: “AI sucks!”
Caulfield stepped back from the podium, turned to the other speakers on stage, and asked, in genuine bewilderment: “What happened?”
The next day — May 9 — at Middle Tennessee State University, Scott Borchetta, executive director of music, told graduates that “AI is rewriting production while we sit here.”
More boos.
Borchetta replied:
deal with it. Like I said, it’s a tool.
A week later, on May 15, tech billionaire and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt took the stage at the University of Arizona. Schmidt’s appearance sparked protests for multiple reasons — including a personal legal matter — but when he compared AI to previous technological revolutions, the stadium booed.
And he admitted it:
I know how many of you feel about this.
I can hear you. There is fear.
Are boos guaranteed?
It’s tempting to read the boos as confirmation that AI is eating the job market alive. But let’s look at the real numbers…
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York tracks college labor market outcomes on an ongoing basis. As you can see in the chart below, dating back to 1990, the unemployment rate has been rising since 2023, but it’s nothing out of the ordinary…
Source: Federal Reserve data
Now the naysayer may respond.
Jeff, the wave is still peaking, so don’t look at unemployment yet. Instead, we should look at underemployment.
justice.
The term “underemployment” refers to a situation in which a person’s work is considered inadequate compared to his or her skills, training, or financial needs.
So, what does it tell us?
Well, the latest data puts the underemployment rate for recent college graduates at 41.5%.
Pretty high, right?
Actually, no.
As you can see below, this is almost exactly in line with where this number has remained over the past three decades.
The chart below dates from 1990, with the blue line showing “recent graduates” and the red line showing “college graduates.”
Source: Federal Reserve data
The overall picture is not as bad as the disapproval suggests.
Of course, the picture is not uniform. Economists at Stanford University studying salary records have identified that early-career workers — ages 22 to 25 — in fields with significant exposure to AI (such as customer service, data entry, entry-level software development, and basic accounting) have seen a relative decline in available roles.
Meanwhile, sectors isolated from AI – nursing, agriculture, and education – continue to employ large numbers of employees, offsetting national averages.
But the bottom line is that the broad narrative of displacement trumps the actual data.
This does not mean that the apocalypse for AI jobs will not come, but it may well be. But for now, the booing is worse than the sting.
But it’s not a clear runway
What does it say when the data is normal, but the narrative is too pessimistic?
He explains that imagine The damage does not need to match reality To drive results.
This aligns with the risks to the AI bull we’re monitoring, thanks to analysis by our technology expert, Luc Lango, editor of the magazine Innovation investor.
Remember that students who boo, whether justified or not, vote.
Locke worries that this negative sentiment has political ramifications for AI, with a very specific timeline.
We’ve covered Luke’s full 2028 treatise on our site May 19 digest. In short, Locke believes the political backlash against AI will crystallize into legislation to curb AI around the 2028 presidential election cycle. That, he argues, is when the curtain comes down on this AI bull.
In other words, those stadium boos aren’t just a cultural moment, they’re Locke’s burning political thesis.
Now, his conclusion is not “get out of the market.” It’s the opposite – which is actually in line with Lewis’ takeaway…
Make your money while the window is open over the next two years.
As we wrap up this section, I’ll leave you with this…
Graduation boos are becoming increasingly loud today – even as overall employment data remains strong.
What do you think will happen to that political clock when data finally starts to catch up with fear?
Jonathan Rose and Mark Chaikin: See what money actually does
Let’s back off.
Lewis says 40% higher… Locke says emotions and legislation will take down this AI bull…
If the tipping point arrives sooner than we would like, how can we navigate the upcoming bull/bust timeline?
By watching what money actually does.
We track capital flows, institutional posture, and difficult signals – and position ourselves accordingly.
This is exactly the framework edited by our trading expert Jonathan Rose Master of CommerceHe built his career around it. and Tomorrow night at 8pm ET, he will be hosting a free event With market veteran Mark Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics, to guide investors through what they call the “Convergence Catalyst.”
Why this trading approach is powerful in today’s market
Jonathan is not a buy-and-hold investor. He is a defined risk trader – someone who catches short-term moves in both directions with maximum loss before starting a trade.
In his country Master of Commerce: Advanced Notice During the service, Jonathan recorded an average all-time gain of 95% on all trades – winners and losers – in an average dwell period of just 46 days. Since volatility spiked following Liberation Day last April, this average has risen to 233%.
Mark has spent 60 years building the analytical tools that institutional investors pay big money for. Its Strength and Money Flow metrics track where the big players are actually moving capital – in real time.
When both signals align on the same trade, the results are amazing: an 81% win rate and an average profit of 147%. The combined signal also helped avoid two out of three losing trades.
They don’t anticipate the market. They read what the market is already telling them – but before the audience understands it.
Lewis could be right about a 40% rally, and Locke could be right that AI trading has a shelf life.
The question isn’t which combo will win – it’s how you can leverage both with some margin of safety for timing the curve… which is where Jonathan and Mark’s trading framework begins.
For investors who want AI with the upside that Lewis sees — with definite downside risks if the narrative deteriorates faster than expected — tomorrow night’s event is the place to start.
To reserve your seat, Just click here We’ll see you at 8 PM ET.
