- Bitcoin fell amid clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices.
- Analysts believe that the limited appetite for widespread escalation limits downside risks.
- The bulls are aiming for a bounce towards $82,000, but the bears may target a breakout below $78,000.
Bitcoin fell to around $79,200 in early trading on Friday, as new military skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz rocked global risk assets.
The leading cryptocurrency saw a sharp intraday pullback after briefly above $80,000, with the recent price swing highlighting the prevailing weakness amid potential geopolitical shocks.
However, despite this view, does the classic “bear trap” exist?
Iran ceasefire weakens Bitcoin’s momentum
Bitcoin rose above $82,500 on Monday, igniting more bullish sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market.
However, Bitcoin’s trend reversed as selling pressure resurfaced, and it fell to support near $79,200.
This contraction coincides with renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran accused the United States of striking an oil tanker, prompting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to launch retaliatory strikes against American warships.
The United States says it responded with counterstrikes.
Energy markets reacted quickly, with the price of Brent crude rising above $100 a barrel, as local skirmishes raised fears of supply disruptions at the world’s main oil hotspot.
According to SosoValue, the flare-up of tensions has injected new anxiety into the so-called “14-point deal” narrative, a diplomatic framework aimed at stabilizing the region.
However, the program notes that President Donald Trump’s insistence that the ceasefire remain in place, and Washington’s framing of his actions as “self-defense,” indicate an unwillingness to see widespread escalation.
“If both sides publicly signal restraint, the damage to global risk appetite remains local,” SosoValue Notice On X.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bear Trap or Deeper Decline?
According to analysts, a scenario that includes containing the current macro fallout could pave the way for a bullish reversal.
Santiment has observed a wave of shareholder capitulation over profit in recent days, which it says points to a potentially sharp recovery amid dwindling liquidity.
“Surrender is one of the key components of the beginning of an uptrend, and portfolios can quit while prices are falling (for fear of losing more) or when prices are rising (expecting prices will not rise),” the company posted.
Meanwhile, John Bollinger, a veteran market technician, recently pointed out that Bitcoin’s trend pattern is fluctuating favorably. BTC has pulled back from the upper Bollinger Bands line, but the BBTrend indicator is still bullish.
This indicates that a short squeeze could be achieved if prices maintain support levels.
The bulls will also need to regain upward momentum thanks to strong trading volume, which was largely helped by limited escalation in the Gulf, containment of rising oil prices, and the crypto-friendly CLARITY law.
The main resistance levels could be between $85,000 and $90,000. However, if downside risks persist, the bears may look for a deeper correction towards the $60,000 support area.
Bitcoin is hovering around $79,615 on Friday morning.
