From earlier today: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to all ships and says it will target ships
Now they repeat that the waterway will remain closed “until further notice.”
Before today, there were some ships still crossing the strait. From official ship tracking data, these numbers were still less than 10 ships per day. But if you include it Shadow fleetsThere may be about 10 to 30 ships crossing daily.
However, the actual number is difficult to ascertain, and it does not actually include larger commercial ships. At this point, most ships that are adequately prepared will have to bear the entire cost/risk of crossing with their AIS transponder turned off as marine insurance will not cover any of this.
Even if the strait is reopened, this does not guarantee that marine insurance will immediately be restored to cover ships looking to transit. Therefore, there will be a delay in any increase in traffic upon reopening. But for now, this is largely just speculation.
The fact remains that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened in a meaningful way. This is as long as the United States and Iran do not find ways to reach an agreement, with control of the waterway being Iran’s biggest leverage in the negotiations.
