## Market snapshot
In the “Trump announcement of Hormuz siege” market, the probability of the blockade being lifted by May 31 is currently 27.5% yes, down from 28% 24 hours ago and 60% a week ago. The Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market also sees low potential, although no specific prices are available.
## Key takeaways
The IRGC threat appears to be consistent with a decreased likelihood of traffic returning to normal in the Strait of Hormuz. Ahmed Wahidi’s statement indicates an increase in tensions, which affects the possibility of announcing the lifting of the US blockade. – Markets appear to interpret the position of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as an indication of ongoing escalation in the region.
## Article text
The Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ahmed Vahidi, announced that ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz without authorization will be considered “legitimate targets.” This announcement comes amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has previously attacked commercial ships in the region. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime checkpoint, facilitating approximately 20% to 21% of global oil flows. Vahidi’s statement is consistent with hardline policies under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, indicating more military control over the region. This move goes beyond the more moderate approach previously proposed by Iran’s civilian leadership.
## Market interpretation
The market interpretation indicates a significant impact on the markets of “Trump’s announcement of the blockade of Hormuz” and “normalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.” The IRGC’s aggressive stance is consistent with scenarios in which tensions remain high, making it less likely that the US blockade will be lifted soon. This development reflects the increasing geopolitical risks that market participants appear to be taking into account in their assessments.
## What to watch
Key developments to watch include any official responses from the United States, especially from figures like Donald Trump and US Central Command. In addition, keep an eye on possible diplomatic engagements or military maneuvers in the region. The IRGC’s actions and statements will remain critical indicators of the market’s perception of future developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
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