Iran cancels talks in Pakistan, escalating US tensions

Iranian hardliner Ali Ghalakhi rejected US demands regarding Tehran’s nuclear program and management of the Strait of Hormuz, citing them as reasons for canceling the talks in Pakistan. The prospects for a ceasefire between the United States and Iran by April 30 are now slim 21.5% Yes, down from 32% just 24 hours ago.

Gholhaki’s statement on social media led to heavy selling in Ceasefire market. With only 9 days left until a potential resolution, traders are pricing in higher tensions and lower odds of a deal. The biggest move in the past 24 hours was a 5-point rise at 6:59 p.m., driven by the possibility of an escalation in hostilities.

The market trades $213,788 in nominal value daily, with $68,607 actually traded in US dollars. It takes $4,074 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, meaning the book has moderate depth but big bets can still push the price.

in 22 centsThe YES share pays $1 if military operations end by April 30. A 4.5x He comes back. This bet will only make sense if you expect a diplomatic breakthrough or mediator intervention within the next week.

Watch the statements of Trump, Secretary Rubio, or mediators like the Sultan of Oman. Any sign of resuming talks or easing of demands could quickly reverse the current move.

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