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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin ETF News: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $221.7 million on Thursday, their largest single-day volume in two months according to SoSoValue dataThis ended a series of outflows that lasted 10 consecutive days and drained $2.73 billion of funds.
This reversal is real, but the composition of this flow raises a more acute question than the one raised by the main number.
The day’s flows were not led by IBIT from BlackRock, the world’s largest bitcoin ETF and historically the product that accounts for the bulk of positive flow days. IBIT recorded an outflow of $40.43 million on Thursday.
The reversal was driven entirely by second-tier products: Fidelity’s FBTC advanced $165.96 million, ARK’s ARKB contributed $91.84 million, and VanEck’s HODL added $4.35 million.
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Bitcoin ETF News: Absence of IBIT Recasts the Flow Signal
On days when institutional conviction drives complexity, IBIT typically absorbs the majority of inflows – historically, 70-90% of net positive inflows on strong days have been routed through the BlackRock product.
Thursday’s formation, with FBTC and ARKB running hot while IBIT is bleeding, looks more like a tactical re-accumulation or retail sell-off than a coordinated institutional rotation back into Bitcoin.
This distinction is important. Retail and tactical flows tend to be steady only as long as price momentum continues. Institutional flows into a product such as EBIT, in contrast, often reflect longer-term positioning decisions with less sensitivity to short-term price noise. The absence of demand for BlackRock on this particular day does not invalidate the flow print, but it does limit the amount of structural weight the reversal can bear.
Bitcoin price context reinforces this reading. BTC was trading near $61,700 at press time, having rebounded from 21-month lows below $58,000 earlier in the week.
This rebound, which is down about 6.5% from the week’s low, is the kind of move that drives out weak shorts and attracts momentum-chasing demand. Bitcoin recovers above $60,000 July 2-3 provided the immediate backdrop to Thursday’s reversal in ETF flows, and the two developments are clearly related rather than independent signals.
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Year-to-date outflows put Thursday into perspective
Even with the positive reading, the year-to-date picture remains structurally heavy. Net outflows across all US Bitcoin ETFs are approximately US$5.4 billion for 2026.
Thursday’s $221.7 million amount covers roughly 4% of that gap. The 10-day string of outflows alone pulled $2.73 billion out of the pool – so a one-day reversal does not recover what was just lost, let alone address broader year-round distribution pressures.
For reference, a previous episode in 2026 saw a four-day linear outflow interruption with $753 million flow in one daythe largest reversal of that cycle, which analysts attributed to the return of pent-up demand after the seller base was wiped out.
Thursday’s $221.7 million follows the same structural pattern but at roughly 30% of that range, suggesting the repositioning may be more cautious this time around. The 10-day series was also significantly longer, implying more sustained selling pressure rather than a sharp flow.
Citi lowered its price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum on July 1, citing the shift in ETF flows as evidence of slowing institutional demand and adverse macro conditions. Thursday’s reversal is a counter signal to this downgrade, but one day does not reverse a trend call. Whether the bank revises its forecast will depend on whether next week’s flow prints maintain that shift.
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