Bitcoin is once again at the center of a heated debate. While many market participants have interpreted the recent weakness as a start New bear marketCryptocurrency trader @CryptoFergani He argues The opposite. According to his assessment, the market has already suffered from its bearish phase, and current conditions indicate this Different phase of the cycle completely.
Bitcoin’s bear phase may already be behind it
To understand his argument, it is important to look beyond daily price fluctuations and focus on the larger structure of the market. @CryptoFergani’s chart appears Bitcoin is moving within a long-term upward channel That guided the price movement across multiple cycles. Historically, the lower boundaries of this channel have served as areas of accumulation, while the upper boundaries have been characterized by periods of optimism and cycle tops.
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The chart highlights several occasions where Bitcoin touched the lower sections of the channel before initiating significant recoveries. In previous sessions, these moments coincided with widespread pessimism, before they were followed by strong progress. The current position on the chart places Bitcoin near a similar area, leading the analyst to conclude that the market is exiting a zone Long correction period Instead of entering a new bear market.
Market psychology is central to this thesis. Many investors who followed the traditional four-year cycle have recently reduced their exposure or exited their positions. With fewer potential sellers, the downward pressure weakens, and even small increases in demand can move the price significantly.
That’s why the analyst interprets the recent weakness as exhaustion rather than a collapse, suggesting that the market is Reset before further expansion phase.
Bitcoin next chapter
If the bear market is indeed over, the next question is where Bitcoin currently stands in the cycle. The answer according to the analytical framework is: Somewhere in between the accumulation And acceleration.
There are several factors that support this opinion. Institutional participation in digital assets continues to expand, and regulatory discussions in the United States are gaining importance Expectations of future economic stimulus They remain part of the broader outlook. @CryptoFergani also highlights shifts in the business cycle, US dollar movementsAnd changes in Federal Reserve policy and commodity trends as part of a larger setup that could favor risk assets.
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Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s short-term performance remains mixed. It is currently trading at around $67,176 after a 4.3% decline over 24 hours. In @CryptoFergani’s view, these pullbacks are not a new bear market yet Disturbances are in a broader transition. His long-term forecast still expects a sharp upward move after the current consolidation, with a potential rise from the $60,000-80,000 range to $320,000-340,000 later in the cycle, provided Bitcoin stays within its long-term upward channel.
It remains to be seen whether these expectations will ultimately be fulfilled. However, the central message is clear: while most of the market is focused on the recent declines, some analysts believe Bitcoin is as well You are no longer fighting a bear market Absolutely. Alternatively, it may serve to lay the foundation for the next major phase of the cycle.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
