For many years, many investors assumed that Ethereum would eventually regain structural leadership against Bitcoin.
The chart currently indicates otherwise.
At least for now.
Trend structure
The visual structure shows:
• Persevering Lowest levels Since the peak of 2021-2022
• Frequent inability to maintain marches
• Long lasting Descending channel remains intact
• Continued relative weakness against Bitcoin
This is not a short correction.
The chart reflects a multi-year downward trend.
And most importantly:
The trend has not broken yet.
Support/resistance
Visible levels on the chart:
Main support:
• Horizontal support around 0.01600
• The lower border area of the descending channel
This appears to be the major bearish level highlighted.
Upper resistance:
• Resistance of the descending channel
• The area around the moving averages
The price remains trapped under both.
Moving averages
Visible moving averages:
• 50 mA ≈ 0.03227 (blue)
• 100 mA ≈ 0.03293 (green)
Notes:
• The price is trading below both major moving averages
• The previous assembly attempt led to the following:
“Reject MA100 for 1 week”
This rejection maintained the bearish structure.
Until the price regains these averages, the trend pressure remains bearish.
Indicators are visible
Relative Strength Index (14):
• The RSI is near the 33-41 area
• Momentum remains weak
• There is no clear sign of a bullish reversal
ETH/BTC appears to be closer to exhaustion than strength.
However, oversold conditions alone rarely end trends.
Chart style
Basic style:
Down channel (descending channel)
The market has respected this structure for years.
Each relief spike eventually failed within the channel.
The pattern remains valid until it is broken.
Bullish scenario
For an upward recovery:
• The price will need to reclaim the moving averages
• Breakout above the resistance of the descending channel
• Invalidate low and high structure
There is no visual confirmation yet.
Bearish scenario
If current weakness persists:
• The downward channel may continue to direct the price down
• Dropping the chart indicates that the following can be reconsidered:
Support 0.01600
This level appears to be of increasing importance.
Not because the support has to continue.
But because markets often react as participants expect them to do.
The uncomfortable question:
What if Ethereum doesn’t get weaker…
What if Bitcoin gets stronger faster?
Relative performance can quietly reshape the narrative over time.
Do you think ETH/BTC has finally broken this multi-year channel – or will 0.016 become the next major test?
