Bitcoin’s rebound is being driven by perpetual futures traders, not organic spot buyers, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Virtual on-chain demand remains negative despite significant ETF inflows and corporate accumulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $77,500 after failing to cross the $80,000 level. The difference between futures positioning and spot flows has become the hallmark of the April market.
Investors are betting on the price of Bitcoin, not buying
Ki Young Ju shared a CryptoQuant chart showing the growth in the 30-day Bitcoin spot price and the perpetual demand for futures. Purple futures bars are back in positive territory until April 2026.
However, the gray spot bars remain below the zero line for most of the month. Spot demand growth continues to contract on a 30-day basis, even as price action recovers.
This gap is important because leveraged perpetual futures positions can be opened and unwound just as quickly. In contrast, a spot purchase requires new capital to absorb the supply upon offer.
ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases did not flip the signal
Spot the United States Bitcoin ETFs attracted $786 million The strongest weekly flow since February was in mid-April. Inflows continued at $823 million the following week, with the main demand being for IBIT from BlackRock.
Accurate strategyThe company, led by Michael Saylor, also purchased 34,164 bitcoins for $2.54 billion in the third-largest single purchase. The purchase was made at an average price of $74,395 USD, bringing the total holdings to 815,061 BTC.
Although both flows, Clear demand for the series It remained net negative until April. CryptoQuant data showed clear 30-day demand near -87,600 BTC earlier in the month.
This gap indicates that ETF and strategic fund purchases are being matched and exceeded by selling from existing owners and miners.
When will the bear market end?
Ki Young Ju has tracked Bitcoin demand cycles for years. It was previously announced Cycle theory is deadCiting structural alternation between old whales and new whales in the long term.
His final framing suggests that sustainable bottoms are only formed when spot demand and futures demand recover at the same time. A futures-led bounce without an immediate recovery has historically been resolved by another decline as leverage declines.
The current setup matches this pattern. Funding rates have risen, open interest is rising, but the underlying spot supply remains weak.
Traders are now watching whether spot demand, as measured by CryptoQuant, could turn positive in the coming weeks. The shift may indicate that new capital is finally absorbing the reported supply pressure Previous warnings.
If futures positions continue to lead while spot demand remains in the red, the rally faces a familiar risk. Previous mid-cycle rebounds in 2025 will unravel in the same way, through forced liquidation rather than new dollar inflows.
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