US unemployment claims and manufacturing data released April 23, 2026, as conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global oil flows. The probability of a rate cut by the Fed after the June 2026 meeting is at
Market reaction
The release of the statements coincides with the collapse of the temporary ceasefire and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose above $118 a barrel, raising inflation risks and weighing on expectations for a Fed rate cut. the Fed decision in June 2026 The market remains stable at
Why does it matter?
Sub-markets for Fed decisions from March to June It also signals a cautious stance, as geopolitical tensions will likely prompt the Fed to prioritize controlling inflation over interest rate cuts. High oil prices and ongoing conflict are the main factors that reduce these possibilities. The lack of movement in odds shows that traders are still digesting the latest economic data along with the geopolitical situation.
What are you watching?
The June rate cut market trades at a nominal value of $26,382 per day, and the actual USDC trading volume is $1,200. It takes $2,864 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, meaning the market is weak and vulnerable to large trades. The largest price movement in the past 24 hours was just 0.1 pips, indicating limited conviction.
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