- Cardano (ADA) is trading near $0.160 with weak momentum and fading buying pressure.
- The key support at $0.157 is crucial, with $0.13 at risk if it breaks.
- Oversold signals and Leios test grid could trigger a short recovery soon.
Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, holding near the lower end of its recent range as both the spot and derivatives markets reflect cautious sentiment.
The price of the token is at $0.1607, down 3.2% in the last 24 hours.
Over longer time frames, the symbol is down 6.1% over the past seven days, down 35.6% over the past month, and down 73.2% in the past year, reflecting continued downward pressure across the broader trend structure.
However, daily trading activity remains brisk, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $368.8 million.
Weak concentration of derivatives and disappearance of participation
In the derivatives market, the ratio of long to short positions is 0.96, indicating slightly more short positions than long positions among traders.
Open interest in futures is around $348 million, continuing a broader decline from mid-May levels.
This decrease in open interest indicates a decrease in speculation participation and indicates that traders are reducing exposure rather than building compelling positions in either direction.
On-chain indicators also reflect stress in market behavior.
The network’s realized profit/loss (NPL) metric fell sharply, showing that a large portion of new shareholders were realizing losses rather than gains.
This type of activity is usually associated with capitulation phases, where holders of weaker stocks exit their positions under continued price pressure.
Cardano technical analysis
Cardano remains below its key long-term moving averages, confirming that the broader trend remains bearish.
The altcoin price is trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which usually reinforce resistance during recovery attempts.
The Relative Strength Index (14) on the daily chart is near 31, indicating that bearish control still exists, although it is no longer in the extreme oversold zone.
Cardano price forecast heading into Leios testnet catalyst
The main event in the near-term outlook is expected Scaling up the Leios testnet Around June 23.
This upgrade testnet is being closely watched as a potential catalyst for renewed activity within the Cardano ecosystem.
The current market structure at this stage remains weak, but conditions are showing early signs of compression.
Oversold readings on higher time frames, combined with declining selling momentum, indicate that the price is approaching a decision point rather than continuing a steady, uninterrupted decline.
If the bulls move around the support area at $0.157, a short-term recovery towards $0.172 remains the basic recovery scenario.
However, failure to maintain this level would keep bearish expectations towards $0.148 and perhaps $0.13 in focus, depending on how market liquidity and sentiment develop.
It is worth noting that the collapse of the bear flag has also been observed in recent technical assessments, a formation that usually indicates a continuation of the current downtrend after a short consolidation phase.
This adds weight to the downside risk scenario unless buyers regain control above key resistance levels.
