Key takeaways
- ADA is trading below key resistance areas, indicating a near-term bearish bias and limiting recovery attempts.
- Whales reduce their exposure to ADA, which could lead to further price declines.
Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, hovering below $0.250 on Friday as price action remains weak below key resistance areas.
On-chain data from Santiment suggests that some whale portfolios are starting to reduce their holdings, increasing selling pressure.
Whales reduce exposure amid changing accumulation trends
Supply distribution data from Santiment indicates a weakening outlook for Cardano as large portfolio investors adjust their positions. Whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA and 1 million to 10 million ADA have offloaded around 80 million tokens since April 19.
Furthermore, portfolios in the 10 million to 100 million ADA range accumulated nearly 60 million ADA during the same period.
This discrepancy suggests a rotation in holdings: medium-sized whales sell, while larger entities absorb supply. Such behavior often reflects distribution at elevated levels, which increases downside risks in the near term.
Cardano derivatives data presents a mixed outlook with a slight bearish bias. Coinglass data It shows open interest falling to $444 million on Friday, down from $490 million on April 18. This indicates low trader participation and weak speculative demand.
Additionally, the long to short ADA ratio stands at 0.80, its lowest level in over a month. A ratio less than 1 indicates a bearish situation, as more traders expect prices to fall.
Despite this, the funding rate paints an optimistic narrative. The OI Weighted Funding Rate turned positive on Thursday and currently stands at 0.0076%, indicating that long positions are driving short positions – often interpreted as a mild bullish signal.
Cardano Price Forecast: Bears continue to halt the recovery
The 4-hour chart of ADA/USD is bearish and active, as Cardano remains technically weak, trading below $0.250.
The coin is facing immediate resistance at the 50-day moving average at $0.258, followed by $0.269 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the 100-day moving average at $0.294.
Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51, while the MACD is flat just above zero, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction.
If the downtrend continues, immediate support will be found at $0.245. A breakdown below this level could expose ADA to further losses towards $0.220, a key support area of the previous session.
However, if the bulls regain control and close above the $0.258 resistance, this will be the first sign of strength in the recovery, which could open the way towards $0.269 and higher resistance levels near $0.294 and $0.299.
An extended bullish reversal would require a move above $0.323 and eventually towards the 200-day EMA near $0.383.
