Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $74,500 after a sharp rebound from its early April lows, but multiple technical signals across time frames suggest the rally could lose steam at a historically significant resistance area.
The move represents a recovery of more than 15% from the $64,000 area touched in early April, reigniting hopes for a broader trend reversal. However, with the price now remaining between the rising channel ceiling and an established supply zone, the bulls will need to prove their conviction in a decisive breakout – or risk handing control over to the bears.
The ascending channel meets the main resistance
On the daily chart, Bitcoin was traded Within an upward parallel channel since the February low near $62,000, recording steadily higher lows.
The price is now moving towards the upper border of that channel while at the same time testing a key resistance box between $74,000 and $76,000 – a level that had already rejected the price in mid-March.
The confluence of channel resistance and a horizontal supply zone makes the current price zone a critical decision point.
A clean daily close above $76,000 will open the way towards the next major resistance range at $85,000-87,000. Below, the main support box is at $64,000-$66,000, in line with the channel minimum.
Warning signs for Bitcoin momentum on the 4-hour chart
Zooming in on the 4-hour time frame, the short-term structure remains technically bullish – BTC has posted a series of higher highs and higher lows since the March 27 low.
A sweep of the previous level of $72,000 (green line) flipped this level to support.
However, momentum tells a different story. Three consecutive instances of the price making higher highs while the RSI prints lower highs (blue circles) forming a triple bearish divergence – a textbook signal for exhausting buying pressure.
Trading volume also declined throughout the advance, confirming weak participation.
Adding to the caution, the Bollinger Band Width (BBWP) indicator has reached historically extreme levels, a condition that typically precedes a volatility contraction and short-term price decline.
BTC Price Prediction: Two Scenarios to Watch
Bullish scenario: Daily close above $76,000 With increasing volume it invalidates the divergence and indicates a real breakout towards $85,000-$87,000.
Invalidation: Price fails to hold $76,000 and returns to the range.
Bearish scenario: Rejection at the current resistance area results in a pullback towards $72,000with a deeper retest of $69,000-$70,000 if $72,000 fails to hold.
Invalidation: Sustained break and close above $76,000.
this post Bitcoin rises to $74,500 – but triple divergence suggests the rally may be over appeared first on BeInCrypto.
