Bitcoin’s recovery from the February 6 low of $60,000 is showing early signs of structural improvement, but the move still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed breakout, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun. In an April 20 video, the analyst said that while long-term holders are accumulating and strategic capital is entering the market, continued selling from short-term holders and whales continues to cap the upside.
Martin framed The current setup as a matter of market character rather than raw price performance. Bitcoin is trading at about $75,000, roughly 24% above what he called the low of a bear market, but he said that alone does not determine whether the market is headed higher in a permanent way.
“The real question is not how far the price moved,” he said. “But what kind of move actually occurred.” “Is this the beginning of a new trend or just another rally being sold off? This distinction is important because misreading this phase is exactly how capital is misallocated.”
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His basic argument is that the basis beneath the market has improved even if the price has not yet confirmed it. Over the past 30 days, long-term holder supply has increased by about 354,000 BTC, a shift he described as “structural accretion.” In Martin’s reading, coins are absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants who are less sensitive to short-term fluctuations.
“That’s not a small number. That’s it.” Structural accumulation“Coins are absorbed and taken out of active trading,” he said. “Long-term holders do not react to short-term fluctuations. So when supply increases, it usually means the market is quietly building a stronger base.”
But this constructive background is only one side of the picture. Much of the recent price rally appears to have come from a more tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning, Martin said. He highlighted Strategy’s rapid capital raise, which he said brought in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours, including $1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14.
Such a strong capital injection would normally be expected to lead to a stronger market response, he said. When this does not happen, it means that the large supply is meeting the demand.
On this front, Martin pointed to two groups of sellers. The first are short-term holders, who have transferred approximately 60,000 BTC to exchanges. More importantly, he said this happens all the time excellent It remains below 1, which means holders are exiting with a loss rather than selling from a position of strength.
“We saw approximately 60,000 bitcoins move to exchanges from this group,” he said. “More importantly, this is happening while the SOPR is below one, which means they are selling at a loss. They bought at a higher price and now they are exiting with a bang. This is classic behavior in a bear market environment.”
This flow was not presented as entirely bearish. Instead, he described it as part of a broader rotation in which weaker hands sell into bids made by stronger buyers. However, he said it’s a trait more commonly associated with bear market rallies than clean trend continuations.
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the second The supply source is whales. According to Martone, wallets holding more than 100 BTC are increasing exchange inflows, indicating that distribution is rebounding again at current levels. This is important because it creates a market in which long-term structural improvement coexists with active near-term selling pressure.
In his view, price action reflects this tension. Bitcoin remains below its short-term holder’s realized price, which he set at around $83,000. Martin described this level as a major pivot: in bull markets, the price tends to hold above it, while in weaker phases it often acts as resistance. For now, Bitcoin is still trading below it, and he said the market has yet to make a clean breakout through key overhead levels.
The result is what Martin called “a fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.” Long-term holders accumulateStrategic demand emerged, and weaker participants were expelled. But short holders are still selling at a loss, whales are aggressively distributing their shares, and the price has not recovered a key structural threshold.
This leaves the market in a conditional state. If demand can continue to absorb supply and push Bitcoin back above its short-term holder realized price, the improving backdrop could begin to translate into a more sustainable uptrend. Even then, Martin’s conclusion is more conservative: internal structure is improving, but the rally has not yet earned the benefit of the doubt.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $75,088.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
