Bitcoin price It could be approaching a major market bottom as multiple on-chain indicators begin to emit signals that have historically appeared near previous cycle lows. After months of sustained selling pressure and a sharp decline from yearly highs, Bitcoin has begun to stabilize near the critical $60,000 support area.
Although short-term sentiment remains cautious, long-term data paints a more positive picture. Valuation premiums are subsiding, selling pressure continues to decline, and long-term coin holders appear increasingly reluctant to distribute coins at current levels. As Bitcoin attempts to build a base above key support, traders are beginning to question whether the current consolidation could represent the basis for the next major move.
Reset MVRV Z-Score signal evaluation
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score recently fell below the +2 standard deviation level after spending most of the previous session in higher territory. Historically, readings above +2 have reflected overheated market conditions and excessive unrealized profits across the network. A move below this limit often indicates that valuation premiums are subsiding and market conditions are returning to equilibrium.
Importantly, the measure is still well above historical depreciation zones, indicating that Bitcoin has not entered a zone of complete capitulation. Instead, the current environment looks more consistent with a market reset than the beginning of a prolonged bear market.
The sell-side risk ratio enters the accumulation zone
Another important on-chain metric supporting the bullish case is Bitcoin’s Adjusted Sell Risk Ratio. The index fell into historically low territory, levels previously seen during major accumulation periods in 2019, 2020 and 2023. These readings indicate that the realized profits and losses have become relatively small compared to the total market value of Bitcoin.
In practice, investors appear increasingly unwilling to sell at current prices, while long-term bondholders continue to remove supply from the market. Historically, these periods have often been preceded by renewed upward momentum.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Analysts see early down formation
Bitcoin price continues to trade near the key $58,000-$60,000 demand zone after experiencing a long correction from its yearly highs. BTC is breaking out of a multi-month bullish structure after facing strong rejection near the $84,000 resistance area. Since then, the market has produced a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the broader corrective trend.
However, analysts point out that the recent price action is starting to resemble a bottoming structure rather than an active distribution phase. Repeated defenses of the $58,000 support area suggest that buyers continue to absorb supply at lower levels. Reduced downside momentum and improving on-chain conditions reinforce the accumulation narrative.
The first bullish confirmation is likely to arrive if Bitcoin reclaims the $65,000 resistance level. A break above this area could spark renewed buying interest and open the door towards the $70,000 area. A breakdown below the current support area could negate the developing recovery structure and expose BTC to a further decline towards the $54,000 region.
Cantor sees a Bitcoin bottom forming later this year
Adding to the accumulation narrative, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald believe that Bitcoin may be entering the final stages of the current correction cycle. Historical cycle analysis indicates that previous Bitcoin bear markets have typically bottomed out several months after the main peak.
If historical patterns continue to hold, some analysts believe the current cycle could bottom out later this year. While this forecast remains speculative, it reinforces the growing view that Bitcoin may be closer to a long-term bottom than the start of a new bear market.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s price action may still be fragile, but many historical indicators are starting to suggest that downside risks are becoming increasingly limited. Cool valuation metrics, low sell-side pressure, and strong support near $60K point to a potential accumulation phase.
As long as Bitcoin continues to hold its key support area, traders will be closely watching whether improving on-chain signals could eventually translate into a broader market recovery.
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