Bitcoin is bouncing. After touching lows near $60,000 last week, the price has recovered to trade around $63,800 and the immediate question facing every trader is whether this move higher is the beginning of something meaningful or is the market simply catching its breath before it pulls back down again.
Based on the technical structure that evolves across multiple time frames, the evidence strongly points towards the latter.
Where does Bitcoin actually stand?
The broader trend that began in October remains bearish and nothing in the current price action has changed this assessment. What Track analysts The Elliott wave structure that is identified is a two-wave bounce wave developing within a larger three-wave bear market decline. The first leg down pushed Bitcoin from the highs to the lows in February.
A rebound followed in May. Now, with the price rejecting the 200-day moving average, the market appears to be working through a second bounce before what could be a more significant third-wave decline later in the summer.
The levels that define everything
There are two resistance areas that clearly define the near-term outlook. The first and most pressing is between $64,500 and $66,269. Bitcoin needs to break clearly above this level to ensure that the second wave of the bounce has real momentum rather than fizzling out at the first meaningful public showing.
The second and more important resistance is located between $67,000 and $77,388. This is the upper limit of the corrective range, and as long as any upside remains below it, the broader bearish structure remains fully intact. A move above $77,000 would force a meaningful reassessment of the entire bearish thesis, but this scenario is not currently the base case.
On the downside, the support zone between $60,200 and $62,240 is the key level to watch. As long as Bitcoin remains above it, the second wave of the bounce could continue to develop towards the $70,700 to $73,400 range, which represents a 50% to 61.8% retracement zone that corrective moves usually target.
A break below $60,200 means that the second wave has already been completed and a more powerful third downward wave has begun, likely targeting the $55,500 area as the next important support.
Right now, Bitcoin is bouncing and the bounce may continue further. But the market structure has not changed and the trend remains bearish until proven otherwise.
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