Your Bitcoin recovery attempt has been successful Back above $80,000 For the first time since late January 2026, giving the bulls a reason to say that the worst of the recent correction has passed. However, one cryptocurrency analyst believes that the move hits directly at a level that could decide how May ends for Bitcoin.
In a technical outlook shared on
Why will Bitcoin close May in red?
Leshka’s Bitcoin predictions are based on price action Since February discharge. The daily candlestick time frame chart shows Bitcoin recovering within an ascending channel, with the price rising from the $60,000 area to the $80,000 area at the time of writing. This recovery looks constructive because the move has caused Bitcoin to post higher lows and higher highs since the February low.
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However, Leshka Explains the same structure differently. According to the analyst, the upward channel is a bearish signal currently in the making. A bear flag typically appears when the price bounces up in a controlled channel after a significant decline, only to later break below the structure and continue lower.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s recent advance appears to be pressing the upper boundary of the ascending channel, and this is located near the same area where the 200-day moving average is located. Interestingly, Bitcoin has been around for seven months Below daily close This is a moving average, and this makes it a key line between a recovery high and a confirmed trend reversal.
At the time of writing, the 200 MA averages around $82,000. The predictions here depend on how Bitcoin works The price reacts to this level. The expected downward path suggested by the analyst shows that Bitcoin is making a final push towards the 200 MA resistance/confluence Before going back down, Channel loss, back to $58,000 to $56,000 range by June.
BTC’s May record faces a big test
Bitcoin is already up 7.11% so far in May 2026. Bitcoin’s monthly return chart shows that May was often One of the strongest months, With an average profit of 18.7% and an average return of 8.32% over the previous years. Bitcoin’s May price movement in the past two years has been positive, with the cryptocurrency rising 11.1% in May 2024 and May 2025.
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This historical strength is what makes this prediction even more interesting. The problem is that the rally is now pressing towards the resistance area where the 200 day moving average is located.
Previous May red closes have also appeared during tough market phases, including a 35.4% drop in May 2021, a 15.9% drop in May 2022, and a 7.10% drop in May 2023. Lischka’s view is that 2026 could join that group if the current move at the top of an up channel fails.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
