Bitcoin is ‘boring’ for AI-hungry retail investors, but Bernstein still expects $150,000 this year

Bitcoin is down about 27% so far in 2026, hurt by weak inflows and retail investors who have largely redirected their enthusiasm toward AI stocks. But analysts at Bernstein push back against the gloom, saying the cryptocurrency’s quiet year is evidence of increasing institutional stability rather than structural deterioration.

In a research note published on Monday, Bernstein’s global digital assets team noted a sharp decline in capital flows into… Bitcoin this year. Net inflows from exchange-traded funds and buyers of corporate Treasuries have fallen to nearly $12 billion year-to-date, compared to $60 billion over all of 2025, an 80% decline. Bitcoin ETFs actually saw net outflows of $2.6 billion out of a total asset base of $75 billion.

But analysts framed this decline in an optimistic light. They claimed that retail investors have simply moved on to chasing AI-related stocks, leaving Bitcoin’s holder base increasingly dominated by institutional players, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and buyers of corporate Treasuries — a more stable foundation than the speculative hordes that drove previous cycles.

strategythe software company turned Bitcoin treasury giant, has continued to accumulate strongly despite the recent declines. The company raised $7.5 billion through a preferred stock vehicle (STRC) this year, using the proceeds to purchase approximately 100,000 bitcoins. The company now owns more than 845,000 bitcoins, worth approximately $53.6 billion.

The broader cryptocurrency market cap is about $2.25 trillion as of this writing — a fraction of the global stock and commodities markets, which Bernstein noted remain the dominant focus for most investors this cycle. Several Bitcoin mining companies have also moved into AI data centers, including IREN and Cipher Digital, and made significant gains in the process.

Even with Bitcoin trading just above the $63,000 mark as of this writing, down about 50% from its peak in October, Bernstein maintained her long-term Bitcoin price target of $150,000 by the end of the year — a hopeful bet amid market distress.

“We believe this stage of Bitcoin’s maturity is underappreciated, and criticism has largely come from its lack of retail momentum — which may not be a bad thing considering retail has been crowded out by AI,” they wrote. “Bitcoin being boring this cycle should not be held against, nor does it detract from the long-term ‘store of value’ thesis, in our view.”