Bitcoin Halts as Ethereum Worst Weekly Signal in Years: Analysis

The cryptocurrency market is roughly entering the second week of July.

Bitcoin is still holding, but just barely, at the low $60,000s after briefly touching 21-month lows below $58,000 last week. Ethereum price is below $1,750, down about 4% on the day, and more than 30% in the past year. The broader market has of course fallen, and altcoins have fallen even further.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has fallen by 30% since January. Cryptocurrency IPOs — Gemini, Bullish, and BitGo — have all collapsed since their debut.

Understandably, the mood is grim.

But depressive moods have a long history of going wrong at exactly the wrong time. Every major bear cycle in Bitcoin since 2009 has ended with a run, an intense fear reading, and a moment when obvious trading seemed to be short.

Bitcoin has now gone through four such cycles, and in almost every case, a pre-halving squeeze phase — where the price falls and sentiment deteriorates before the next supply shock — preceded the next one higher. The next halving – when mining rewards, and thus the supply of newly minted Bitcoin, is reduced by approximately 50% – After 21 months, Which is historically when accumulation starts to feel uncomfortable.

The difference this course? Encryption is now mainstream.

Bitcoin ETFsInstitutional balance sheets, formal accounting standards changes, and the legislative framework for digital assets have all arrived since the latter half. Bitcoin now has a very different institutional status than it did when BTC was a niche hobby. This does not eliminate volatility, it just means that players in this bear market are wearing different suits than last time. Whether that accelerates or delays the bottom is an open question. Infographics, for now, have their answer.

Bitcoin Price: Optimism with an asterisk

Bitcoin opened the week at $63,587, reached a high of $64,657, and then closed lower, meaning the bulls showed up and tried to push ahead, and failed. Bitcoin is trading at $61,749, down 2.89% on the week.

It’s important to note that Bitcoin fell to $58,035 just days ago — a 21-month low — before bouncing back.

The resistance area that stopped the rally is exactly the one everyone was watching. The $64-65K area has been a ceiling since early June, and it was barely cleared by a candle this week before pulling back. on Countlessa prediction market that I developed DecryptionAccording to parent company Dastan, traders are placing approximately 73% odds that Bitcoin will reach $55,000 before reaching $84,000. Sentiment among forecasters flipped on June 2nd – before then, the smart money was leaning higher.

Zooming out on the weekly chart, the Fibonacci retracement levels (natural support and resistance areas that occur during a trend) of the entire downward line from $82,833 place the $73,245 and $70,284 area as is the case with most of the activity.

The average directional index, or ADX, is 30.7. The ADX measures trend strength regardless of trend on a scale from 0 to 100. When it is above 25, this tells traders that there is an actual trend, and that 30.7 is strong. Based on the directionality, bears are in control.

The relative strength index, or RSI, is at 36.8. The RSI measures momentum, similarly on a scale from 0 to 100: a level above 70 indicates overbought conditions and usually triggers profit-taking; Below 30 signals oversold conditions that typically attract buyers. At 36.8, Bitcoin is approaching the oversold zone but has not crossed the threshold yet. The technical setup indicates that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion – but the ‘approach’ is not ‘ending’. Right now, the markets appear to be experiencing panic selling.

One cautionary note for the bears: the picture painted by the exponential moving averages is still bullish. Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average, or EMA, remains above its 200-week EMA. When this happens, it forms a pattern that traders refer to as a “golden cross,” which in this case is still technically sound. But it is narrowing quickly. The inverse of the golden cross is a death cross, and if it forms on the weekly chart it will represent a structural shift that very few Bitcoin cycles have survived without a deeper flow first.

Fortunately for the perennial Bulls, that hasn’t happened in a while.

The reasons for the bullish case are mostly fundamental:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs just snapped a 10-day streak of $2.7 billion outflows with a $221.7 million inflow in a single day on July 2, and have since withdrawn roughly $510 million. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders have returned to accumulating after a long period of distribution, with purchasing activity expanding across wallet pools.

The Fear and Greed Index of 23, which records “extreme fear,” is historically a contrarian signal — not a guarantee, but a pattern. Some indicators approaching the oversold zone on the weekly chart indicate that the selling may be closer to exhaustion than just beginning.

For a bearish scenario, technical techniques are more evident for those who focus on shorter time frames:

Bitcoin failed to break the exact resistance that everyone was watching. The ADX is at 30.7 with a bearish trend indicator confirming an active downtrend with real momentum. Outflows from ETFs since the beginning of the year remain negative. City reduced The 12-month Bitcoin price is expected to reach $82,000 with a bearish case at $53,000. The Fibonacci target below the current price at $57,735 remains the most obvious technical magnet on the chart. Myriad’s prediction market — where money talks, not opinions — says there’s a 72.3% chance of getting $55,000 first.

Ethereum Price: The Death Cross No One Wanted

Ethereum is trading at $1,729.7, down 3.06% from the weekly opening price of $1,784. This number is painful enough. But the bigger story is not the weekly candle, but what just happened on the weekly chart under the hood.

Ethereum has just confirmed its weekly death cross. The 50-week EMA crossed below the 200-week EMA for the first time in years. The coming days/weeks will be key for determining long-term trading positions if the cross extends and is not invalidated.

On shorter time frames, death crosses occur regularly and can reverse quickly. On the weekly chart, they represent months of structural decline, and tend to mark phases of the entire market rather than individual moves.

Ethereum’s daily chart has been in a death cross since November 2025, when ETH peaked near $4,100 before beginning its extended decline. This daily bearish structure has now spread to the weekly frame, which is confirmation on a longer time frame that the downtrend is not just a passing blip.

Traders are countless It appears to be as bearish on ETH as it is on BTC, and likewise, pricing in a 72% probability of Ethereum hitting $1,500 before $3,000. Those odds flipped in May, and before that, the market was closer to a 50-50 split between the two outcomes. The options gap is now at its largest level since June, suggesting that conviction has moved firmly to the bearish camp among traders putting actual money on the line.

The Fibonacci retracement on ETH’s downline from $2465.8 to $1505.1 identifies the area between $2098.9 and $1985.5 as the most active areas to watch. The current price is fixed at $1,729.7 near the Fibonacci level at $1,731.8. Below that, the next technical reference is the $1,500 price area. This is exactly the doom scenario that countless traders are betting on.

The ADX reads 26.5 with a downtrend – same story as Bitcoin, but more pronounced. The trend is confirmed, the trend is down, and the bears are enjoying the momentum. The RSI of 36.9 mirrors Bitcoin’s reading almost exactly: bearish, approaching oversold but not there yet.

Some hopium for the bulls: Weekly death crosses on Ethereum have historically appeared around the final stages of bear market cycles – not in the middle of them. In previous sessions, a three-day death cross often coincided with or immediately preceded major lows. In other words, this is the panic zone where many people are waiting to buy the asset at a cheap price.

If this pattern continues, the pain may be closer to the end than to the beginning. ETH ETFs turned positive on July 2 with inflows of $29.1 million. The RSI has been approaching the oversold zone over the course of the week – an area that has historically been a strong accumulation signal for patient buyers.

Now for the bears: The weekly death cross is a new structural fact, not a temporary signal – it took months to form and usually takes months to reverse. US ETH ETFs posted a record 17 straight days of net outflows totaling $401 million in May, followed by another 10 days. line in June.

Technically, the Fibonacci target at $1,500 is the next key level, and is the exact number that the 72.3% majority of Myriad are betting on. Citi’s low case for ETH is $1,094. The weekly structure does not give the bulls much to work with until the Ethereum price reclaims the $2,000 area – a 15.6% upside from current levels which would require a sustained trend reversal that no indicator has yet confirmed.