Key takeaways
- Bitcoin fell for the fourth straight day on Monday after losing nearly 6% the previous week.
- US-listed Bitcoin ETFs record a weekly outflow of $1 billion, the highest level in three months.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Monday, trading below $77,000 after falling nearly 6% last week, as continued ETF outflows and stronger-than-expected US inflation data dampened investors’ appetite for risky assets.
The latest decline marks the fourth straight day of losses for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency continuing to decline after failing to maintain momentum above the key $82,000 resistance area.
Hot US inflation data reinforces hawkish Fed outlook
Bitcoin’s recent weakness accelerated after hotter-than-expected US inflation data released last week, along with strong US retail sales numbers that bolstered expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Renewed inflationary fears have strengthened the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher, creating additional pressure on risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.
High interest rate expectations typically reduce market liquidity and shift investors’ capital toward safer, yield-generating assets, limiting demand for speculative markets like Bitcoin.
Rejection near the $82,000 level also triggered additional profit-taking from short-term holders, intensifying the correction.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin also weakened significantly last week. According to data from Queen GlassU.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of about $1 billion last week, representing the largest weekly withdrawal since late January.
The sharp reversal in ETF flows signals a decline in institutional sentiment after several weeks of strong flows that previously supported Bitcoin’s rally.
If ETF outflows continue in the coming sessions, analysts warn that Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bulls fail to cross key resistance level
The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish after Bitcoin price was rejected near the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $82,289.
BTC also closed last week below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $78,490, which was measured from October’s all-time high of $126,199 to February’s low of $60,000.
A break below these key technical levels shifted momentum strongly lower. If selling pressure continues, Bitcoin’s losses could extend towards the key psychological support level at $75,000.
On the weekly chart, momentum indicators remain mixed but increasingly cautious. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral 50 level and is currently located near 35, indicating strong downside momentum.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) histogram is also in negative territory, indicating that the bears are in control.
If the downtrend continues, immediate support is near the 50-day and 100-day moving average below the current price action.
Other downside targets include the 38.2% Fib retracement levels near $74,487, followed by the previous trend line breakout area around $70,576.
Below that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $68,950 remains a critical level protecting Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure above the $60,000 swing low.
However, if the bulls regain control, initial resistance will appear near the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $78,962, followed by the 200-day moving average near $81,853.
A stronger upward continuation would likely require a daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels near $83,437 and the horizontal resistance barrier near $84,410.
